Once the mystery is revealed, it is now another game, for both opponents of the 19-N runoff. But while the ruling and political class, in general, continues to act and make it clear that it is not up to the challenges of the country, people struggle with growing everyday problems. As a reflection of the fact that the crisis reaches all corners and segments, private kindergartens began to implode. Challenged by the renewal of rents, they decided to close with the obvious consequences for the families of each community.
Thus, day by day, new news and obstacles arise that affect the economy of households, while the political sides settle their differences publicly, negotiate their interests, and position themselves for the runoff and the day after. Several banks and international entities such as the EMTA are already organizing events for the Argentine case after 19-N, already knowing who the elected president is.
For now, next week will be very busy in terms of meetings of consultants, gurus and money with a view to what may happen in the runoff and in the economic-financial transition towards that long weekend. All this arose at a lunch in Puerto Madero among men from the market, some, obviously, with school-age children. At this meeting, while the authorities hunted the “Croat” and his apparent accomplices, a diner raised doubts about the actions, for example, of the CNV, which did nothing or said nothing about the rise in soybeans hours before the new agricultural dollar was announced. 70/30. Many, well-informed or visionary, had gained a lot of money, others also lost a lot. Perhaps, hence the complaints about control.
After the results of the first round, the surprise was not only brought by Massa who got into the runoff but also with the numbers he did and the high percentage of vote retention of the PASO and the migration from other spaces. The analysts talk with the table operators, first imagining what the self-transition towards December 10 will be like, if he wins. But the consensus is that today it is not clear who wins, what capacity for persuasion Massa and Milei will have, and how the new alliances affected the people. There is a lot of uncertainty and it is not known if it will be cleared before the runoff.
An experienced political consultant advised starting to read the Erdogan model that Massa could implement. It is a state-centric model that worked for the Turkish leader despite poor macro performance. Another issue that dominates the 2024 agenda is the IMF because the 2025 maturities are important. Expectation for something new without Plan Platita II.
The people from the Adcap financial group held a webinar together with Poliarquía, with clients, to analyze the electoral panorama. The host, Javier Timerman, moderated Alejandro Catterberg’s presentation, which left some clues: Massa emerged stronger from the election and consolidated himself as a political leader; In this election, Together for Change imploded; You cannot understand the result without understanding the cataract of errors that Juntos made; and the move to the center to attract Massa voters is natural and in the case of Milei it is more forced.