The commitment comes in a complex moment for the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA), which are around US$24.5 billion, Although they are being strengthened with the export increase program launched by the Government, the monetary regulator seeks to protect its firepower against possible pre-electoral exchange runs and in view of the next evaluation of goals that the Fund will carry out after the ballot. (scheduled for November 19).
In principle, as far as he could know Ambitpayment will be made with part of the freely available funds that China recently enabled: a new tranche equivalent to US$6.5 billion, which is in a BCRA account. In fact, for this reason, the Government asked the Chinese government for an amount higher than what was expected, which was US$5,000 million, because it missed the need for this disbursement.
But other sources indicated that It is likely that, once again, the payment in yuan will be combined with a bridge loan from some credit organization in order not to affect the BCRA’s reserves so much. at a key moment like the current one.
One possibility is that assistance will come, once again, from the CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean), which has just carried out the largest placement in its history, through a bond for US$1,750 million with a term of 3 and a half years and a coupon of 6%. In other words, the organization is more liquid than ever, so it could assist Argentina once again in a payment to the IMF, just as it did a few months ago.
Thus, the cancellation of the US$2.6 billion would be done, once again, in a combined manner: yuan and bridge credit. But this possibility has not yet been officially confirmed. What is a fact is that the Government will pay in a single payment three expirations: One for US$1,280 millionanother of US$640 million and a third for US$673 million he last business day of October.
After the payment, how will the relationship with the IMF continue?
“No one cares about the goals today,” a source close to the Government tells this medium when asked what will happen to the fiscal and reserve objectives set in the last review. His expression is ironic and refers to the fact that all attention today is focused on the runoff.
But, in part, his statement is true given that, as the economist and director of MyR Consultores Fabio Rodríguez explains, “there is still a disbursement that the Government is going to make to finish the current program with the organization” and that is aligned with the good predisposition that the candidate for president and Minister of Economy, Sergo Massa, has been showing on that path.
Note in progress.-
Source: Ambito
