On November 13, the Government will announce the official number of the inflation Of October. For this month a slight deceleration and it could even be in the single digits. In this framework, a private consulting analyzed the four weeks of the month end to end and reflected the price variation in the food most consumed by Argentines. What data did she provide?
The latest report of INDEC It showed 12.7% for September, bringing the accumulated variation to 103.2% and the interannual variation to 138.3%.
Thus, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at a two digit range and it was higher than what the private sector had predicted, which warned about the drag on August, mainly after the jump in exchange rates after the Primary elections.
For the October inflation estimate there is no consensus in the private sectorgiven that some private consulting firms hope to break the double-digit barrier, while others predict that it will continue at that level.
According to LCG, one of the most observed by the Government and by economists, food inflation in the fourth week of October slowed down 3.2 pp compared to the previous week. It presents a monthly inflation of 7.2% average in the last 4 weeks and 7.9% end to end in the same period.
EcoGo was one of those who took that path, reducing her inflation forecast from 10.2 to 9.8%.
About, Rocío Bisang, economist at that consulting firm, indicated that “with the data given by the surveys before the elections we expected to see another reaction in the following days in the exchange rate and prices,” recognizing that “the rThe result once again ended up surprising us and that prompted a low in projections”.
At the same time, he noted that there was “a certain correction in some prices that had skyrocketed before the elections in search of coverage,” explaining another factor that determined the change in projection.
From Ecolatina They continue that path, estimating that the October CPI is around 10% and with possibility of breaking the double-digit trendalthough they clarify that the forecast is without having the survey of the second fortnight of the month.
Inflation: other consulting firms are less optimistic
The Economist Juan Luis Bour from FIEL He added that they are “around 11%, which could be 10.7% (with luck).”
Even with this forecast, the specialist warned that “if the fourth week accelerates (due to the increase in meat, more devaluation, etc.) then it will be somewhat above 11%.”
The Freedom and Progress Foundation The forecast also changed, although it is above the other firms and observes an upward trend, reflecting that the data will be between 11.9 and 12.4%, according to the latest survey, which does not include the last week of the month.
Analyst Eugenio Mari specified that “the slowdown in the weekly CPI that had been perceived in the last weeks of September was reversed in the first week of the month, when we registered a variation of 4.2%, while in the second it was 4.5%”.
Inflation: which foods increased the most
- Sugar, honey, sweets and cocoa: 12.3%
- Fruits: 11.4%
- Ready-to-go meals: 11.2%
- Baking products, cereals and pasta: 7.9%
- Oils: 7.3%
- Dairy products and eggs: 7.2%
- Vegetables: 6.5%
- Meats: 6%
- Condiments and other food products: 5.7%
- Drinks and infusions to consume at home: 4.5%