They point out that issues in pesos linked to the dollar would have to be governed by an eventual commercial dollar. Doubts about what would happen to hard dollar issues.
The rumor circulating in the market is that The next government could begin to organize the exchange front through a split. That alternative was contemplated in Carlos Melconian’s plan and was the one that seemed the most reasonable given the current context of multiple dollars. Among the operators, it is anticipated that the new president, who, according to the implicit prices of the different assets, could be Sergio Massawill not have a large influx of dollars until the end of the first quarter of 2024. That is why it is anticipated that to avoid the sudden jump, maintain the stocks and simplify the exchange market, the new economic team would have to go towards that type of scheme.
“I sense that with Massa there will be an exchange rate split because there will not be a flow of funds until the gross harvest,” said Juan José Vázquez.Head of Search at Cohen Argentina, who warned about the changes that a modification of this type could bring to the market.
If there were a cheaper commercial dollar and another financial dollar for the rest of the operations, the corporations issuing “hard dollar” bonds would be more complicated. “Sending private sector debt to the financial dollar is going to have an impact”said Vázquez. Financial analyst Elena Alonso also considers that the value of companies’ negotiable obligations “could be affected” in the event of a split. “We would have to see what the issue prospectuses say,” Alonso said.
In the case of the private issues linked to the dollar, most contracts indicate that under the current situation of stocks, the reference exchange rate is what is called A3500 (the official one). But the issuers seem to have contemplated possibilities for changes. Prospects set some alternatives, but the exchange rate offered to exporters upon settlement is always taken as a basis. In this case, if there were a “financial dollar,” the current bonds already issued would have to be governed by the commercial one, which would be the cheapest, and which would therefore offer fewer pesos to the investor.
Likewise, National Treasury and provincial bonds dollar linked are channeled through the commercial. “The majority of the provincial ones linked to the dollar are governed by the A3500 and only a tiny part propose another dollar like Banco Nación,” he said. Alejandro Pegoraro, director of Politikon Chaco. Pegoraro specified that for the provinces, in the case of hard dollars they have the limitation that they can access the official for up to 40% amortization, and the rest, which includes interest, they are already purchasing in Cash with Settlement. So that scheme could be maintained in the future.
Andrés Reschini, economist at F2 Soluciones Financieras, warns that problems could arise for the countryside in “forward” contracts, That is, when a future grain price. “Contracts are expiring that are being canceled with dollars at $350 but the exporter is being paid the dollar at $510, which arises from 70% official and 30% from Cash with Settlement,” he explained. Reschini estimated that beyond the fact that the future government should order all these aspects in the event of a split, the reality is that “this type of thing is not good for the capital market because it does not generate confidence in investors.”
Source: Ambito
