The forecast includes net exports of soybeans and derivatives. This is in comparison to the previous campaign, marked by drought. The long-awaited dollars will be felt from April.
In an economy urged to add foreign currency, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) projected that the income from net exports of the soybean complex will reach US$18,000 million in 2024that is, 125% more than what would be obtained at the end of this year.
The increase in projected income is explained by a jump in production of 150%, going from the 20 million tons produced in the 2022/23 campaign, strongly affected by drought, to 50 million tons, according to forecasts the BCR, but also the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA).
“October has become a month of definitions for Argentine crops. The long-awaited rains allowed the soil moisture profile to be recomposed in key regions, despite the fact that to the west of Buenos Aires and the north center of Córdoba it is still necessary to add more millimeters,” the stock exchange entity’s report stated.
That, combined with the largest planted area in six years, with 17.4 million hectares, “makes it possible to project a soybean production of 50 million tons; that is, two and a half times what was obtained in the previous cycle,” explained the entity’s work.
If the remainder that would remain from the 2022/23 campaign is added, the total supply of soybeans is estimated at 58 million tons, in line with the average of the last ten campaigns and 54% more than 2022/23. “With this, it can be expected that the processing of the oil industry would grow to 39 million tons, an increase of close to 50% compared to the previous cycle,” the entity indicated.
Taking into account this volume of production and industrialization, for the current cycle “net exports of the soybean complex are estimated at just US$8,000 million, the lowest value in almost 20 years, since the 2003/04 campaign.” “Meanwhile, for the new 2023/24 campaign and as a result of the productive recomposition, an income of dollars from net exports of soybeans and derived products is projected for US$18,000 million,” said the BCR.
Thus, weather permitting, they would earn about US$10,000 million more than last season and above the average of the last five years, although still below the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marks.
soy complex
In Argentina, 30% of the dollars earned through exports come from the agricultural complex. That is why the reactivation of the key industry for Argentine foreign trade is expected like manna from heaven, said the BCR.
In the same analysis he added that “the bulk of income from sales abroad historically occurs in the first two quarters of the campaign, which represent on average 61% of the value of exports”, so a “normalization” could be expected. in volumes” starting in April.
Source: Ambito
