The inflation November will return to double digits according to the average of consulting firms surveyed by the central bank in the monthly expectations report (REM). According to the average of consulting firms, November would reach 11.5%, 3.2 pp. above the 8.3% reported by the INDEC for the October CPI.
According to the report that includes the perspectives of 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers, and 12 financial entities in Argentina, five months ahead are projected with indexes in two digitsreturning to 9% monthly by April 2024. However, in this framework, they projected a 2% drop in the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the 2022 average, improving perspective at 0.8pp with respect to the previous survey.
This improvement is concentrated in the third quarter, a period for which the participants began to estimate a GDP expansion quarterly without seasonality of 2.3% after in the previous survey they predicted a contraction of 0.5% for that same period.
Meanwhile, those who best predicted this variable in the past projected, on average, a reduction of 1.9% in the year. Projecting 2024, consultants and analysts They are not optimistic seeing another year of recession with an average contraction of 1.6% yoy, which implied a deterioration of 0.4 pp compared to the previous survey.
GDP: which are the sectors to follow closely
According to a recent report by Econviews there are two sectors that must be followed closely. One of them is industry and the other is construction.
Construction: For this sector, the outlook is “pessimistic” for the coming months. Last month, it fell 0.1% but the year-on-year variation is -4.5%. So far this year, activity in the sector has fallen by 2.9% compared to the same period last year. It was public works that sustained the sector in the month of September.
Industry: “the situation is a little better, although not that much” they say from Econviews. In September the industry productionl fell 3.6% year-on-year and barely rose 0.2% monthly. So far this year it has accumulated a drop of 0.4%.
The most notable items:
- Oil refining: accumulated growth of 7.1%. The increase in refining was 13.6% monthly in September.
- Production of automobiles and auto parts: accumulated growth of 5.7% in September. Car production stands out by 16% year-on-year.
- Mining sector: has an accumulated growth of 10.3% and an interannual variation of 8.7%.
Food and drinks: It continues to be the most affected sector with a cumulative drop of 3.1%, mainly due to the drop in the milling of oilseeds as a result of the drought. In turn, the poor performance of Machinery and Equipment (-3%) is explained by the fall in the production of agricultural machinery (-7%).
“What is coming is not good but neither is the catastrophe. production grows but retail consumption grew 3% monthly in October. In this month the cement scrap had a slight rebound of 1.5% monthly, so we can expect an improvement in the numbers of private construction. Car production fell 2.3% monthly and sales 0.4%. Is a activity with chiaroscuros that will resist until the end of the year despite the uncertainty“, concluded the consultant.
Source: Ambito
