The poverty closed October at 42.9% according to a study by the Torcuato Di Tella University. Despite the moderation of inflation in the last month, this projection estimates that around 43% of people live in poor urban households. The urban population captured by the EPH in the reference semester was estimated at 29.2 million people, which implies that around 12.5 million live in poor urban households.
The poverty nowcast prepared by the University estimates the incidence of poverty, measured in terms of the percentage of people living in poor households, on a semiannual basis. It is updated every month and the estimate is based on the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) of INDEC together with projections of the total basic basket (CBT) using the Consumer’s price index and projections of the deciles of total family income.
The CBT The average for the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) region for the reference semester was estimated at $89,013 per adult equivalent. This is a year-on-year increase of 134.8%. For him average total family income (ITF) An interannual increase of 111.3% was projected for the semester. With these data, the EPH for the second quarter of 2023 and the simulation of the EPH microdata for the third and fourth (October) quarters of 2023, the poverty rate was projected.
The projected incidence is a weighted average of an estimated poverty rate in 41.6% for him May-June 2023 bimester, 42.6% for the third quarter of 2023 and 46.6% by October 2023. It is worth remembering that according to INDEC, the population below the poverty line stands at 40.1% for the first semester of this year, before the devaluation and the election period.
This Monday, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) reported that inflation slowed to 8.3% in October after reaching 12.4% in August and 12.7% in September due to the post-STEP devaluation. This Wednesday, data on the basic food basket (CBA) and the Total Basic Basket (CBT) from last month are expected, where the impact of the price increase can be observed, although in a more moderate manner than in previous months.