The libertarian candidate, Javier Mileiwon the presidential election with strong advantage over Sergio Massacurrent Minister of Economy, and now, it is a time of uncertainty regarding what’s next in economic matters.
When it comes to citizens, the focus should be on inflation, which is the Achilles heel of the current Government and the main reason for the defeat in these elections, but that is an emerging of other problems that the new management will have to solve. What will it bring the coming economy?
“The transition is going to be complex“, he states in dialogue with Ambit Camilo Tiscornia, economist at CyT Economic Advisors. He describes that “the macroeconomy It arrives very destabilized to the change of Government, with a strong delay in the exchange rate, a deteriorated fiscal front and repressed inflation. “There is much to correct, although the unavoidable axis is in fiscal mattersalthough the urgency for people is inflation“, says.
Tiscornia mentions that the underlying solution is tax issue and considers that “it is not clear how Milei will implement the cut on that front.” And, as pointed out analyst Salvador Di Stefano“the coming economy is that of ‘chainsaw plan’, dollarization and the elimination of the BCRA. Those, without a doubt, are the great campaign promises of the libertarian, but we will have to see what it is what you’re really going to be able to do in a context in which will not have a majority in Congress.
Economy with Milei: will the promises apply?
He economist from the University of Avellaneda Pablo Ferrari points out that “the time has come to see, beyond all the proposals that I had been making Milei in the campaign, if he implements all the points he has raised to the fullest extent.” He mentions in this sense that they had already anticipated that dollarization is not a goal to be met overnight.
Therefore, it is expected that it will bet on generating the preconditions for favor dollarization. He warns that there is a risk that this will generate hyperinflation and that a strong increase is expected. portfolio dollarization. Likewise, he considers that “we must see if Milei or Macri governs and that will determine what the strict plan will be.”
In fact, the first reaction to the election result was a strong rise in the crypto dollar, according to the main exchanges. He dollar Bitcoin rose 16% to $1,152.24 on post-election night. Within hours of knowing the result, that quote broke $1,000 and surpassed the blue dollar, which closed on Friday at $950.
The concrete thing is that there is a general idea that it will go towards a strong public spending adjustment, which is going to be a core policy. So, Di Stefano hopes that he will come “an economy marked by strong adjustmentmore of an exporter than linked to the domestic market and that will try to insert itself into the world.
What we will have to see is how he applies what he promised so much in the campaign of making “a strong adjustment to the political caste“There are still a few days left for him to clarify his economic plan and make it clear what he is really going to do.
The transition towards the Milei plan
For Rocío Bisang, Eco Go economistin the immediate future he hopes to “see a certain correction in the markets, considering that expectations prior to the election pointed more to a victory for Massa than for Milei.”
In that sense, the economist and head of Research at Ecolatina, Santiago Manoukianpoints out that “the key is to wait to see what the transition and what will be the signs of cooperation or not in this process and if Milei moderates his measures with respect to what he has been saying he is going to do.
And it is that Bisang points out that “one thing is what you say as a candidate, which also changed over time, and another is what you actually do.” Milei as president-elect.” Thus, he insists that it is necessary to wait and see that in the coming days the first guidelines are defined of what is going to happen in the coming economy. A key piece of information will be the announcement of who will be the new Minister of Economy and “a plan that marks a clearer course.”
Source: Ambito
