After winning by almost 12 points, Milei began to transmit its first initiatives that respond to its three economic guidelines: “Small state, respect for property rights and commercial openness to the world.”
Under that liberal-libertarian mantle, in less than 24 hours He assured that the stocks will be lifted as long as the Leliq position is disarmedwill cut the issuance to reduce inflation in 18 or 24 months, will put an end to public works, will repeal the Rental Law and will close the BCRA.
However, about its financial and exchange policy, few details are obtained. Carlos Rodríguez, historical professor and researcher at the University of CEMA, former Secretary of Economic Policy of Menem and now advisor to the libertarian, explained on the social network If assumed, this could have an instant effect on the markets that are currently intervened by the ruling party. This could generate a financial/exchange crisis and the ruling party could blame Milei for causing it.”
Milei “liked” the statement. The strategy on how to announce his economic program is decided in a context of unresolved transition between the president-elect and Alberto Fernández, current president. Sergio Massa, former candidate – but acting Minister of Economy – left the scene and appointed the transition team made up of Gabriel Rubinstein, Raúl Rigo, Leonardo Madcur and Miguel Pesce.
“Milei should give some certainty about the path it plans to take, although not necessarily with a great level of detail,” explains to this medium Pablo Besmedrisnik, director of VDC Consulting. In turn, he warns: “There are action policies that per se do not need details: confirmation or not of advancing dollarization generates exchange noise. In this area, talking about deadlines can be taken into account.”
For Alfredo Romanoowner of Romano Group, the Rodríguez line is correct, but “It is important to clarify who will be on the economic teams, both the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank” and then “give signals to reach fiscal balance and a monetary reform, which is surely the dollarization of the economy.” Milei said that he will not yet announce his minister in the economic portfolio because “it would be putting him in an electric chair”, but when asked about the next figure, he names Luis “Toto” Caputo, Luciano Laspina and Federico Sturzenegger as economists with whom he respects and maintains dialogue. For the BCRA, the person identified is Emilio Ocampo.
The same path poses Ivan Carrinohead of ICYA Asociados, who assures that he will have to transmit these days “certainty, calm and professionalism” and his measures such as private property and market economy “do not generate a run”, but it will be necessary “certainties about the exchange rate for dollarization, avoiding comments like ‘if the dollar rises it is easier (to dollarize)’.”
On the contrary, Andrés Reschini, of F2 Soluciones Financieras, maintains that “the ideal is to communicate generalities as clearly as possible before measures,” although his initial shock plan “is already known”: cutting public spending, monetary regulation, lowering tax pressure and “strengthening assistance to those with fewer resources.”
Various definitions still remain and not only on the economic level. What is clear for Besmedrisnik is a no small component: “The policies to be implemented in the coming months must be accompanied by the containment network that exists to date, it will be difficult to dismantle it in the short term.”