It did so through Communication “A” 7891/2023 published this Monday in the Official Gazette, where Communications “A” 7863 and 7872″ are extended until the end of December.
He central bank provided for the extension of a rule that prevents banks from altering their net global position in foreign currency. He did it by Communication “A” 7891/2023 published this Monday, November 27 in the Official bulletin, where Communications “A” 7863 and 7872″ are extended until the end of December.
For almost a month, banks were able to carry out modifications since the previous rule had expired at the end of October. On the 13th of last month when the decision was made, it was justified by the exchange rate tension caused by the electoral uncertainty. It is worth remembering that what is being limited is the expansion of bank holdings (the net global position), which is what they can invest for themselves.
In this sense, this implies the extension of exchange regulation since the Central Bank limits the demand for dollars from the banks to the BCRA to favor not only the transition to a new government but also part of the beginning of the management of Javier Milei whose volatility in the financial markets is already taken for granted in the month of December.
This regulation aims to protect dollar reserves to maintain firepower in order to counteract the dollar shocks until the end of December. The same had been established in November 2021, in a similar very complex pre-electoral context.
Official dollar vs parallel dollars: what to expect for December
The electoral process ended and Javier Milei He was elected President for the next four years. Now there is a brief transition and while the teams and the first measures are defined, the market correct the numbers for what will happen to the official dollar in December and its correlation in the parallels.
In the run-up to the runoff, the one who gave the sign of what was expected was the futures market which operated at lower values ($600) when it assigned a high probability to Sergio Massa’s victory. On the other hand, when the scenario that seemed most likely was that of Javier Milei with a quick exchange rate unification / dollarization, The value of that contract was close to $1,000.
After the electoral process and with Milei’s victory, the market began to operate in an intermediate range. Around $770 / $790. This implies that, for now, they are assigning lower probabilities of shock dollarization or exchange rate unificationaccording to MEGAQM.
In fact, the last contract traded in futures for December 2023, assigns a dollar value to $800. A signal that is seen by analysts when predicting that the exit from the stocks would not be done quicklybut there would be a exchange rate correction that month. An exchange rate correction that would undoubtedly have an impact on the parallels: with a shortening of the gap close to 25% but whose uncertainty will continue to be present.
Source: Ambito
