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Consumption for the holidays could be the lowest in the last 20 years, according to a study

Consumption for the holidays could be the lowest in the last 20 years, according to a study

Consumption for the holidays could suffer a drop of 35%. The data arises from a survey of the Institute of Mass Consumption Studies (INDECOM) shortly after the end of the year celebrations.

Inflation, the year-on-year devaluation and the loss of purchasing power appear as the main causes of the marked trend, both in gifts and food, which It would exceed the drop observed only during the 2001 crisis.

In recent days, the entity rraised prices that display mass consumption products in the different points of sale for these dates, as well as looking at the most common gifts for Christmas, and determined that a marked context of stagflation is already being observed, characterized by a stagnation of the economy and a persistent increase in prices.

In this regard, the director of the organization, Miguel Calvete, explained that “the work was carried out in the geographical area of ​​the City of Buenos Aires, Greater Buenos Aires, Rosario, Córdoba, Mar del Plata, Paraná, Mendoza, Posadas, Corrientes , Salta, Jujuy and Tucumán” and that “it was divided into 4 wholesale stores, 141 large chain supermarkets and 322 local self-service stores on the stock that already exists in food and beverage products such as ciders, sweet breads, puddings, nougats, candy , canned peaches, wines and sparkling drinks, as well as in the main cuts of meat, chicken and fish.”

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The report was prepared based on the measurement that the same organization obtained of the weighted average inflation for the month of November.

At the same time, he noted that some 216 businesses in items such as clothing, footwear, perfumery, jewelry and flower shops were surveyed. Also “we contacted authorities from 32 multi-item and multi-brand online sales portals, 18 shopping centers and open-air fairs on streets and avenues, we worked with scanning check-out of products and purchase tickets and on partial statistics from the different cameras businesswomen.”

The report was prepared based on the measurement that the same organization obtained on the weighted average inflation for the month of Novemberwhich at a general level showed an increase of one 15.8% and that rises to 17.4% if food and beverages are disaggregated.

Fall in sales: the main data from the study

At a general level, the work highlights that all sales surfaces (food and gifts) They project a drop in sales of 36.6% average, just 3.8% below the 40.4% that was registered in 2020 (in the midst of the Covid 19 pandemic), and climbing 1% above the 35.6% drop registered in 2001, in amid the social outbreak that ended the government of Fernando De La Rúa.

“In other words, it is the most important drop in the projection of consumption that has been recorded in the last 22 years, resulting from an economic crisis, barely excepting what occurred due to the force majeure issues generated by the mandatory isolation of 2020” Calvete acknowledged.

In the area of ​​foodstuffs and drinks that make up the different Christmas and New Year’s menus, the work indicates that the year-on-year price increase, in some cases, It even exceeds two and a third times (+230%) the 2022 values, while in the case of gifts, the increases reach up to triple (+300%) the values ​​exhibited a year ago (in imported items that accompany the rise of the dollar).

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The price increase in year-on-year terms exceeded 300% for some products.

The price increase in year-on-year terms exceeded 300% for some products.

In the case of the foodboth wholesalers, supermarkets and small self-service stores have recognized that they are stocking below 35.7%, on average, in reference to 2022, while in the case of gifts, the figure is even lower, with a drop in merchandise stock of 37.6%.

At the same time, INDECOM highlights that the drop in food sales is accompanied by a marked change in habits towards second and third brands. At a general level, there is also an interannual drop of 32.8% in the purchasing capacity of informal workers and a 27.9% drop in those with formal jobs.

As additional information, the work also details that the surfaces They affirm that “consumers in the middle segments are bringing forward purchases (following the same decline in transaction volumes) to try to preserve your salary and avoid raises of indiscriminate prices that regularly occur during the days prior to the holidays.”

Thus, Calvete finally pointed out that “lto rise in prices It is already a regrettable constant to which we are accustomed”, although he warned that “on this occasion the most worrying thing is that the magnifying glass must rest on the fall in the consumption expectationwhich has collapsed to the lowest levels of the last two decades.”

Source: Ambito

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