what to expect from the first year of Javier Milei’s government according to 40 economists

what to expect from the first year of Javier Milei’s government according to 40 economists

The inflation of 25.5% in December it pressures the price of the official dollar beyond the devaluation held in December. In this scenario, a survey carried out among more than 40 bank economists was published. and national consultants and foreigners with their expectations for the coming months.

This is the survey carried out by FocusEconomics which publishes its projections regarding the value of the dollar, the levels of inflation and activity expected until the end of December.

Dollar: what to expect for the first year of government

The document maintains that the planned devaluation of the wholesale exchange rate for 2024 will be around 110%, a level below the projected inflation of 280%.

In particular, the Expert consensus considers that the official exchange rate will end the year at $1,700.

Consulting firms that predict a lowest dollar They are: Perezco Economics ($943.7), Torino Capital ($1,030), Analytica Consultora ($1,030), Fitch Solutions ($1,193) and Barclayss Capital ($1,193).

Meanwhile, those who predict a higher dollar are: Equilibra ($3,070), LCG ($2,902), Banco Supervielle ($2,490), Santander ($2,393) and Fitch Ratings ($2,375).

Economists’ forecasts for the end of the year published by FocusEconomics they go in line with el Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank, where a wholesale dollar of $1,700 is also expected by the end of the year.

The LatinFocus report noted that “there is great uncertainty around the prospects for the peso, such as greater convergence between the official and parallel markets. The rate cannot be ruled out. That said, further depreciation seems inevitable this year: our panelists’ forecasts for the end of 2024 range from $935 to $3,070 per dollar. Much depends on the success of President (Javier) Milei’s reform agenda: if the new Government’s attempts to quickly revive the economy, drastically reduce the fiscal deficit and slow money issuance prove successful, demand for the peso will strengthen and currency should stabilize.”

Dollar: the Government’s forecast

Luis Caputo referred to two of the most relevant issues on the social agenda: the inflation calculation and the possibility of a new devaluation in the first quarter of the year.

The official’s definitions came through a response on the social network and reaching $1015 in April.”


Luis Caputo explained what he thinks of the dollar and future inflation data


Given this, Luis Caputo He considered that the economist’s indicators “are quite far from reality” and that the conclusions he reached “are not shared by anyone today.” As for inflation, the Economy Minister expressed its percentage estimates for the first four months of the year, which would contemplate a decline in monthly price growth: 21.9% in January, 18% in February, 15% in March and 13% in April.

Source: Ambito

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