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They estimate how much refineries could withstand an oil cut

They estimate how much refineries could withstand an oil cut

If the governor of Chubut, Ignacio Torres, were to interrupt the supply of oil and gas, that situation could be endured in the refineries for a maximum of one month, according to the estimate of specialists. But this calculation will depend on demand, import capacity, level of adherence to the measure and interruption of transportation to storage areas.

Official data from the Ministry of Energy details that Chubut It is the second oil producing province and the fourth largest gas producer, with 136,378 barrels per day and 8 million cubic meters per day, respectively. It is estimated that it maintains a 20% share in oil production and is part of the San Jorge Gulf Basin, along with the northern area of ​​Santa Cruz.

“It is a productive basin of the first magnitude, below Neuquén. It supplies 30% of Argentina’s oil production and 9% of gas production”says Jorge Lapeña, former Secretary of Energy and president of IAE Mosconi.

The information clarifies the relevant impact of the Chubut province in the hydrocarbon market. 77% of the production is destined for the national territorywhile only 23% is exported, according to the Ministry of Economy of Chubut.

That is why Lapeña affirms that the seizure of oil “would produce very negative effects on the functioning of the economy, a very important harm to consumers throughout the country and to the committed exports, which would be interrupted.” Thus, in a matter of days, they could be seen “queues at pumps and shortages”, he anticipates.

Nicolás Gadano, an economist specializing in hydrocarbons, maintains the same line. He understands that, if the exit of crude oil from Chubut is blocked, “the system has the stocks to hold“, but it will depend on whether it is a “simulation” or a measure taken over time, which “would affect gasoline production in Argentine refineries in a matter of days”.

At the same time, he warns that the provincial State would not only affect contracts, but also would damage the deposits where only conventional oil is extracted. For this reason, Juan José Carbajales, owner of the consulting firm Paspartú, points out that these formations “cannot be easily closed and opened,” while Escalante, the oil extracted from Chubut, is used to process Medanito, which is extracted from the Neuquén Basin.

“Without Chubut crude oil, the refineries suffer. This situation could last for about a month.“, estimates the specialist. However, the time could vary if demand increases – a self-fulfilling prophecy -, refineries or the Government itself import fuel or restrict exports. The drop in consumption, as a result of the incipient recession, could also help mitigate the impact.

Market effect of oil supply disruption

Ignacio Barousse, former official of the Ministry of Energy, detailed this estimate with numbers: “Argentina has on average approximately 15 days of crude oil stock (in fields, refineries and storage plants) and another 25 days of finished products (gasoline and diesel)”, he explained in the Surtidores media.

However, if the measure does not acquire regional volume, and the total cut does not last more than between 5 and 8 days, for hydrocarbon specialist Eduardo Fernández, The greatest effect on the market “would be psychological.” “Let us keep in mind that there are crude oil stocks in production areas, tanks and midstream pipelines and in refinery tanks; in addition to the finished products in refineries and distribution plants of the different companies,” he clarifies.

At the moment, only the governor of Tierra del Fuego, Gustavo Melella, confirmed for this Wednesday the interruption of oil production for 24 hours, in support of Torres. ”This is a decision made by all the governors of Patagonia, with the support of the workers in the oil sector. What we ask of the Government is that it feels urgent with the governor of Chubut to try to resolve the situation,” he stated, before the ruling of the federal justice of Chubut was known. Likewise, the province only represents 0.6% of hydrocarbon production.

For Gerardo Rabinovich, an engineer at IAE Mosconi, the loss of Chubut crude does not imply a “total shortage” either, but it may. generate serious difficulties in the oil chain, supply and cargo transportation restrictions. The question that encompasses those interviewed is which actor suffers the greatest economic loss: the fuel market due to shortages or the provinces due to lack of income through royalties.

Source: Ambito

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