According to the IGA-OJF, the general level of activity registered a 3.8% year-on-year drop in January 2024. For its part, the seasonally adjusted measurement registered a contraction of 0.8% compared to the previous month.
The Economy fell 3.8% in January, according to Ferreres
The economic activity extended its negative streak in January, falling 0.8% in monthly terms, after the sharp decline reported at the end of 2023 in a context of devaluation and contraction of real income. Besides, The general level of activity registered a drop of 3.8% year-on-year in the first month of the year, according to the Orlando Ferreres consulting firm.
With the exception of agriculture and the mining and quarrying segment, the rest of the relevant sectors are showing very considerable year-on-year fallsand the short-term prospects are not very encouraging, said the same consultancy.
“The government plan, in an environment of currency shortage, will have recessionary effects in the first months of 2024and the numbers will only improve when the thick harvest arrives,” they specified.
In this way, for Ferreres, A more substantial improvement will only happen if inflation is reduced and exchange controls are removed.
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Sector by sector: how industrial activity fared
Agriculture and Livestock: The agricultural sector showed an interannual increase of 17.5% at the beginning of 2024, although with a strong contrast between the sub-items. While agricultural activity grew 30.9%, livestock farming fell 4.4% compared to January 2023.
Manufacturing industry: The manufacturing industry fell 4.2% year-on-year. Almost all the segments surveyed have shown a decline compared to the same month of the previous year, although the better relative performance of the food sector allowed the aggregate number to moderate. In the first month of the year, both automobile manufacturing and the production of base metals and non-metallic minerals showed double-digit declines, although oil production rebounded 13.5% year-on-year.
Electricity, gas and water: At the beginning of 2024, the segment showed a decrease of 7.8% vs. January 2023, accentuating the drop evident last December, and thus accumulating two consecutive year-on-year declines.
Mines and Quarries: This sector rose 0.2% vs. same month last year, being one of the few relevant segments that remain in positive territory. Although the extraction of crude oil maintains a good pace, the performance of the natural gas sub-item and associated services qualified the aggregate number.
Source: Ambito
