“You have to be Luis Caputo to know when to get off the bike”. Twitter speaks. The dollar, too. With this phrase, in the last few hours the problem was identified – the concept is excessive – of the average investor, who sees how the sell-dollar-buy-peso equation is being installed to get at the rate. It is the rain of dollars with which the Government has frozen nerves and encapsulated, for now, the always announced devaluation.
Of course, for a deadlinethe thing is more difficult because he does not know – as Caputo does know – when the accelerator on devaluation will be released, liquefying the rate in dollars. For now, although it may seem like a lie, the dollars of speculation compete hand in hand with those of the middle class. Everyone sells, no one buys, spirits are formatted, a country expensive in dollars for invisible salaries, declining consumption, investment and public spending, idem. The white hope is the trade balance, while imports are beaten so that it comes out positive.
The CCL dollar and the Mep, on hold
Symbol of this time, financial dollars are trapped between $950 and $1050. They come and go. It is an unlikely terrain. They lie about their volatility, there is none, so that no one says that some are making money in the heat of the manipulation proposed by the Government. I brought your dollarswe buy them cheap. The most valuable thing is the information.
Of course, those who do business are those who have Caputo’s information: how long can one stay in pesos until the flags of the renewed exchange rate jump are raised. Unique dollar rate in the world.
Carry, my love
Does the May Pact kill devaluation? A round at the City tables, betting is open. Many consider that the carry trade (the financial cycle) could continue throughout March, while waiting for the liquidation of the heavy harvest. Others, even, They see the May Pact as the unequivocal sign that the Government must put to rest any intention of change on the financial front to convince the governors that the president’s pact with his social media people is intact. For the majority of analysts, the Government is betting everything on the idea that, from now on, inflation will continue to fall. It is worth putting a 14 on the table if the previous data was 15. And so on. The same for the issue of financial surplus. Magic accounting passes will do the rest. In Creole, although the Congressional Budget Office says – as happened this weekend – that the fiscal surplus was not achieved in February and that it was not enough with a chainsaw and blender, in any case, the Caputo-boys assure that they will settle it in a few days and there will be good news. Magic. The surplus is not delivered or, As Chiche Gelblung said, don’t let reality ruin good news for you..
“If the goal is to reach that date well with the political agreements closed, it will be difficult for someone to endorse an exchange rate jump and the restart of the inflationary scare, I don’t see it,” said a traditional market broker. In any case, in times when the agricultural complex evaluates whether to liquidate the harvest or not, the opposite effect usually occurs. The first dollar is sold, the second is looked at, the third is sold at a higher price. Another question also arises: Can the Government advance a currency unification plan? Wouldn’t that imply a devaluation jump in the previous one to remove the dangers that a high demand for the ticket would imply on the part of those who today have it prohibited?
Exchange, Reidel arrives, the stocks leave
Add some forgotten data. For example, there will be an exchange of Treasury bonds – announced by the Ministry of Finance -. The idea is to “clean up” all 2024 maturities of peso titles. It helps to think about exchange rate unification. Also, ad limitum, in dollarization, although that is a card that the Government plans to play if everything gets out of hand. Completing the picture is the “capture remover”, Demian Reidel, who has just been accepted into the Forces of Heaven 2.0. President Milei announced the creation of the Council of Economic Advisors and stated that the graduate in Physics and doctor in Economics, Demián Reidel, will chair it. In addition, he confirmed that Marra will be another of the members, given that Secretary Karina Milei swept him out of the legislature. “I want to thank Mr. President @jmilei for his trust in putting me in charge of the president’s new council of economic advisors. It is an honor and a privilege for me to be able to contribute my efforts to think about the Argentina of the future,” Reidel wrote in a message on the X network. Reidel resides in the United States and his agenda is full of Wall Street contacts: He operated for Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, and is the owner of an investment fund in the US, QFR Capital Management., which will have to be followed closely. And although he was second vice president of Federico Sturzenegger during the first part of Mauricio Macri’s government, the most relevant thing is this: in
However, it is worth remembering that during the management of Sturzenegger – the strong man of the Government whom no one mentions – Reidel implemented the free floating exchange rate scheme, in which all the scaffolding for buying and selling dollars was eliminated. But where he makes “emotional contact” with Milei is that the brand new advisor was one of the articulators of the inflation targeting scheme, with which the Macri government supposedly planned to land in 2019 with an inflation of 5% although, finally, that figure closed at 54%. In fact, the president has said repeatedly that the “advance” of “28-D” was a mistake. as the conference is remembered in which the goals were changed and, supposedly, Sturzenegger’s Central Bank lost its credibility. With the departure of the economist, Reidel also left, in June 2018. Will there be revenge?
Source: Ambito
