The pax exchange extends for almost two months and analysts are already beginning to observe a “fragile scheme” where in the future the dollar “might be under pressure.” It is that the reasons that keep financial dollars at bay are temporary and not long-term measures.
According to the report of LCG The reasons that influence this exchange rate calm are due to:
1. Economic agents and investors were “gaining trust” in the long termfundamentally from a first two months with the absence of fiscal deficit.
2. The February inflation fell 13% monthly, “a lower indicator than projected and the balance of trade showed a surplus, while international reserves recovered. A first stage of ‘reunion with macroeconomic balances’ seems to be calming the waters.”
3. Rate reduction It did not impact the dollar but rather the pesos were channeled into various public securities. “It is good news that it has not sought refuge, for the moment, in financial dollars but as long as the real exchange rate appreciation is accentuated in line with coming inflation (both in official dollars and in parallels) It is very possible that the dollar will once again be the preferred asset in portfolios“he warns.
The recession plays its role with the dollar
LCG warned of the possibility of trying to iron the exchange rate as an inflationary anchor, it has had “counterproductive effects.”
For the consultant, the recession affects imports and wages and moderates the effects of inflation in dollars for many companies.
“Whenever the dollar was perceived as relatively cheap, the solution was a devaluation – generally disorderly – or stocks.”
Thus he concludes that they continue to see that the “dirty” work continues to be done by the recession to a large extent “putting prices at bay and allowing exchange balances to accumulate, which limit payments and enable a new reduction in nominal rates.” accentuating the liquefaction of stocks in pesos.”
Source: Ambito
