A private report estimates that the retired of the minimum this year they will have an increase in salaries of 220% during 2024, due to the change in the formula of pension mobility.
This is indicated by the consulting firm Equilibra, run by economist Martín Rapetti. In a report he points out that due to the DNU that modifies the retirement mobility formula “They will be indexed to the latest INDEC inflation data with a 2-month lag starting in July.”
The report indicates that “During the transition, salaries will also be updated by CPI, and in April there will be a 12.5% plus,” while “in June, the increase will be the largest between the current formula and the new one.”
“According to our estimates, the current law would show a salary increase of 50% in June, below the 61% of the new formula,” says Equilibra.
The report maintains that “the latter would imply for the National Government a higher pension expenditure of $1 billion in the second quarter (+0.1% of GDP).”
“According to our base scenario, and projecting a trajectory for bonuses in line with what they have been registering since December ($70,000 in the 2nd quarter, $80,000 in the 3rd and $90,000 in the 4th), the minimum retirement including bonuses would advance 220% throughout the year” says the report.
In this regard, Equilibra indicates that “retirements that are not covered by the bonds would advance 300%, in line with inflation.”
“Given that the majority of retirees and pensioners receive the lowest salaries, if significant increases are not granted in the extraordinary bonuses compared to those we contemplate, total spending on retirements and pensions would fall 3 points of GDP in the year ( from 7.7% of GDP in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024),” the report says.
Analysts estimate that Javier Milei’s government intends for the pension system to be at a spending level equivalent to between 5 and 6 points of GDP. It would be lower than during the government of Alberto Fernández, which was at levels close to 7 points and much less than the 9.6 points of 2017, during the administration of Mauricio Macri.
Source: Ambito
