The government hopes that the recovery of the economy begins in the fourth quarter of this yearas stated in a presentation of the Secretariat of Economic Policy on April 4th. This year, according to their estimates, GDP will fall 2.8%. And although the agricultural sector is the main one in the productive structure of Argentina, if it is excluded, the collapse of the rest of the economy would be 5.1%, suggests the Treasury Palace.
President Javier Milei has said in his last dspeech before the Libertad Foundation that the recovery of activity will be “V” shaped that is, with a very strong output. If so, that just It would be until 2025.
“The first signs of recovery are estimated for the fourth quarter of 2024”says the 39-page presentation that was prepared for the conversations with the IMF held by Minister Luis Caputo and the president of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili, who seek that the organization provide them with some US$15,000 million to get out of the trap. exchange.
The report indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP fell 1.9%, which Last year it closed with a drop of 1.6%.
“By 2024 we estimate a drop of 2.8%,” says the presentation, which clarifies that “it represents a recovery of the agricultural sector affected by last year’s drought.” That, as the Treasury Palace admits, “implies a sharp drop in non-agricultural GDP of 5.1%.”
For all of 2024 the Palacio de Hacienda estimates inflation of 124.6%, which takes into account inflationary inertia, the pending adjustments of regulated prices, a crawling peg of 2% that is maintained and a gap of 4.5%.
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With that, This month the inflation forecast by the Treasury Palace will be 8% and that in May would drop to 5.5%. In June it would go to 4.5%; July, 4.2%; August, 4%; September, 3.8%; October, 3.7%; November, 3.5% and December, 3.5%.
Although the data imply a notable improvement, if fulfilled, with respect to the inflation with which the libertarian administration began, it alsoIt would be at an extraordinarily high level, equivalent to 50% annually in December.
If the government is going to take into account its own projections for preparing the 2025 Budget will be known on September 15 when the project is presented to the Chamber of Deputies. A couple of weeks ago the Treasury Palace ordered the different sectors of the state to launch the mechanism for preparing the income and expense pattern for next year.
On the other hand, the report prepared byThe Secretariat of Economic Policy predicts that in 2024 there will be a trade balance surplus of US$18,701 millionas a product of exports for US$97,337 million and imports for US$78,636 million.
That implies that heSales abroad will rise approximately 17% compared to last year, while imports will plummet by 15%. The data is consistent with a drop in non-agricultural GDP of 5%, because the demand for inputs for production falls.
On the other hand, heThe Secretariat of Economic Policy recognizes that in January and February of this year the government generated a new commercial debt of about US$5.5 billion as a product of access to the Single and Free Exchange Market for importers in four 25% installments. It is then estimated that starting next month the flow of imports will normalize.
Source: Ambito
