Consulting companies warn that purchasing power will not recover in 2024

Consulting companies warn that purchasing power will not recover in 2024

He consumption is estimated to collapse by 10% this year while the real salary – in the formal private sector – would fall on average 7%. Consultants assure that Only in 2025 could both disposable income and the acquisition of goods and services recoveraccording to optimistic forecasts.

The Sales decline in supermarkets is estimated to average 11%in 2024 while in restaurants will be 7.5% this year. In March alone, the drop in supermarkets reached 19%, while restaurants recorded a loss of 6.7%.

Given this context, Consumers opt for local stores (they do not make such large purchases) and choose second or third brands, in addition to being attentive and taking advantage of promotions and discounts.

In the case of the home appliances, They were very relegated on the shopping list. SepI expect a drop of 25% by 2024 because the purchasing predisposition continues to fall in the first three months of the year, and in March, it registered a drop of 66.2%, the lowest level since the pandemic.

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They warn that the drop in income may deepen due to the effect of tariffs

He Disposable income of the population could more than doubleproduct of the strong rearrangement of the relative prices of the rates gas, electricity, water, public transportation and fuel, which have been adjusted well above the inflation hitting the pockets hard.

The interannual inflation as of March was 290% but the prices of many key goods or services for daily life far exceeded this magnitude: electricity and gas, increased 300%, alcoholic beverages, 302%; food, 306%; sugar, chocolate and candy, 349%; bread and cereals, 352%; fuel and lubricants, 364%; medications, 379%; public transportation, 385%; mineral waters, soft drinks and juices, 386%.

Others that also had significant increases, but not at the level of the CPI, were prepaid, with 289% (although Justice ordered to return what was charged above inflation), restaurants and hotels, 266%, education, 227%; clothing and footwear, and housing rental, 149%. And many still must continue adjusting to make up for past delays.

According to the consultant’s estimate Abecebnext year the Sales in supermarkets could grow by 2.5%the activity in restaurants would show a result positive which would reach 4.5% and the sale of household appliances would grow 12.3%.

Salaries showed a slight sign of recovery in the formal economy in March

Despite the drop recorded since December, March showed slight signs of an incipient recovery. According to the index Ripteprepared by the Ministry of Labor and which measures the variation of “stable” income of the economy, the third month of the year showed a variation of 14%against an inflation that was eleven% in that same month.

In December that wage index had resulted in a very pronounced loss: 8.3% of nominal improvement in income against a 25.5% of inflation. In January salaries increased 14.7% against 20.6% of CPI; and in February the numbers were 11.5% and 13.2%respectively.

Although the Ripte index is one of the ways that the State has of measuring salary variation, some economists consider that, in contexts of marked price volatility such as recent months, it may be an unrepresentative indicator. And even the Ministry of Labor itself is responsible for clarifying by stating that this indicator “does not necessarily reflect the evolution of salaries in private registered employment.”

Likewise, the consultants themselves clarify that the rate update that began to be applied in recent weeks will have a new impact on income, so the recovery could only arrive next year.

Source: Ambito

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