The price of dollar It is always a recurring theme for Argentines. And after a surprise for the blue last week that led it to reach $1,100, interest in knowing what the price for the exchange rate will be in the coming months is accentuated.
In that framework, the main national and international banks and consulting firms They projected how much inflation will reach in the remainder of the year and what will happen to the main economic variables such as the dollar and growth. It is important to note that these estimates are based on the wholesale dollar, that is, they seek to forecast the pace of devaluation that the Government would take.
Dollar: analysts’ expectations
The latest international report of FocusEconomics He predicted that the official dollar will climb to $2,100 at the end of December. This value would indicate that the wholesale dollar, which today is around $887, rises up to 160%. This is also an increase below the projected inflation, around 256.9%.
That is, the rise in the price of the dollar would be almost 100 percentage points behind the increase in prices in the economy, although both variables show downward inertia.
Specifically, it is now expected that the wholesale exchange rate advance by the end of the year to a maximum of $2,100, about 700 pesos less than the $2,800 indicated by the most pessimistic panelists surveyed two months ago (March) by FocusEconomics for the same date.
Thus, economists are predicting a lower inflation and greater calm in the market which will also impact the exchange market, with a smaller increase projected for the official wholesale dollar.
The highest projections are those of S&P Global Ratings, with $2,100followed by national consulting firms LCG ($2,075) and Econviews, with $1,775.
Among the highest forecasts for the dollar are Credicorp Capital ($1,650), Fitch Ratings ($1,613), HSBC and Capital Economics, both with an estimate of $1,600. And this group is completed by MAP ($1,562) and Equilibra, with an estimate of $1,555 for next December.
Blue dollar: why it rose above $1,100
The blue dollar woke up and climbed $80 last week, its biggest rise since January and the third most important in 2024. In this way, the upward trend was consolidated and reached its highest value in three months, exceeding $1,100.
The parallel exchange rate rose $20 and ended the round at $1,090 for purchase and $1,120 for sale on Friday, May 17, according to a survey by Ambit in the caves of the City. Thus, the gap with the official was 26.3%, a maximum since February 27.
Last week was marked by the sixth rate drop in the Central Bank (BCRA)in charge of Santiago Bausili. After learning that the inflation returned to single digits (8.8%), on Tuesday the monetary authority resolved lower its monetary policy by 10 percentage points on Tuesday and took it to 40%.
The different economists and financial analysts consulted by Ámbito agreed that this measure had a direct impact on the rise of the parallel currency.since it is not attractive to stay in pesos and invest them because the fixed term rate is increasingly negative. In most banks, which already had negative returns, the rate was currently adjusted to 30% annually, which is equivalent to a 2.5% monthlyvery far from the 5% to 6% inflation that is projected for the fifth month of the year.
“Prices are adjusting to a new scenario and we will see at what level they find their equilibrium point”he claimed Gustavo QuintanaPR agent Corredores de Cambio.
In another order, they also have an impact, according to the economist Gustavo Ber, “the flows of blend“ -liquidation at 80% of the official dollar and 20% of the CCL for agriculture-, which he estimated: “It will continue to be gradual and orderly, as well as limited in the short term.”
In the political context, as explained Alejandro Bianchifounder of AsesorDeInversiones.com, also affects the blue dollar the possibility that the Law Bases don’t go out for the famous May Pact and that it could be postponed to June or July, according to the president Javier Mileiwhich generated “some kind of fear in the market”.
Likewise, Bianchi pointed out that the profit-taking of the S&P Merval, which seems to see a ceiling at $1,400, may also lead some investors to reposition themselves in dollars.
Source: Ambito
