This Thursday the presidential spokesperson, Manuel Adorni, assured that the collapse of economic activity hit its bottom in March and highlighted some data that would be giving indications about the much-mentioned “V rebound.” however, The economists who spoke with Ámbito do not see levers that can support the economy and cast doubt on the official view.
The INDEC announced this week that The economy accumulated its fifth consecutive year-on-year decline in March, collapsing 8.4% compared to the same month of 2023.
In this regard, the director of the Institute of Labor and Economy (ITE) of the Germán Abdala Foundation, Juan Manuel Telecheawarned in conversations with this medium that the monthly improvement in some April data will not necessarily be reflected in a rebound in activity.
“While it is true that April saw a recovery compared to March in revenue, car registrations, retail sales and construction, it seems to me that this is not enough to confirm that we have hit the bottom. The EMAE data for March was very weak, below expectationsso it is not that there is a one-to-one relationship between these other indicators and the economy in aggregate terms,” he deepened.
Likewise, the economist disagreed with Minister Luis Caputo’s view of the “V” shape that the reactivation would have since “consumption represents 70% of aggregate demand and there are no perceived drivers that will drive it, in a context of salaries and pensions in depressed values”.
“I don’t know what indicators the Government is looking at to say that the recession is bottoming out. The data we have until March indicates that it is not; Consumption is stagnant due to a drop in real wages, investments are not appearing and will take time to come, and exports are complicated by the lag in the exchange rate.“said the liberal Roberto Cachanosky.
Looking to the future, the specialist does not perceive drivers that could drive activity upwards since of the three variables mentioned “Only exports can increase due to the agricultural sector, but today they are not liquidating what is normally liquidated at this time of the year”.
For his part, the Executive Director of Libertad y Progreso, Aldo Abram, predicted a possible bottom in April, although he clarified that there are still no accurate indicators that show a trend in that sense. In that sense, she estimated that It will be the agricultural sector that will underpin the recoveryas long as the exchange gap is managed to be contained, something that the Master in Economic Sciences believes will happen.
Even so, Abram warned that beyond the field’s contribution, The two necessary conditions for there to be a rapid rebound are the approval of the Bases Law, to give and, fundamentally, the exit from the stocks. “The stocks put a brake on prices but also on the economy.”
“I think that the agricultural sector is the one that is going to be supporting the recovery; it already started a few weeks ago to lift, to be able to lift the harvest it was very delayed and that mobilizes the economy.”
Adorni explained on this day that events such as the return of mortgage credit are an indication of improvement in terms of activity. In addition, the official highlighted the slowdown in inflation as one of the variables that would allow this rebound. “We have a lot of prices that have already been corrected and released, and that have actually been honest as we intended. In addition to seeing some salaries that are beginning to earn month after month, we understand that that lowest point has already passed,” he explained.
Economic activity collapsed more than 8% annually
The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) published on Wednesday by the INDEC showed a contraction of 8.4% year-on-year for March.
Of the most relevant sectors of the economy, construction, manufacturing and commerce are the most affected.
In the case of industry, the textile and steel sectors are the ones that have the most impact on the fall, although strong declines are also seen in agricultural machinery, household appliances and electronic products.
To the aforementioned sectors we can add the activity of banks that, although with less weight in the EMAE, suffered significant losses.
Contrary to the general level, the hydrocarbon and mining sector, and agriculture, have been showing improvements (in the case of agriculture with a very low comparison base due to the 2023 drought).
Source: Ambito
