Study: Ukraine refugees could be hope for the labor market

Study: Ukraine refugees could be hope for the labor market

The refugees from Ukraine are also a hope for the partially depleted labor market in Germany. A simulation shows that taking them in is possible, but not easy.

According to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the employment rate of war refugees from Ukraine will be 45 percent five years after their escape. After ten years, the rate will rise to 55 percent, the IAB announced as a result of its simulation study.

This would mean that Ukrainians would reach a similar level of employment participation as the refugees in the 2015/2016 movement, who came to Germany primarily from countries such as Syria and Afghanistan. However, these refugees had some more favorable conditions – because the labor market was more receptive than it is today. In addition, the proportion of men without family ties and without the need for childcare was much higher.

Significant gap between men and women

The gap in employment rates between men and women is significant: five years after arrival, men in the baseline scenario of the study had an employment rate of 58 percent, while women had a rate of 41 percent at that time. After ten years, these figures increased to 68 percent for men and 52 percent for women.

Poor health, good education

The family situation of most Ukrainian refugees has a negative impact on their participation in the labor market – many of them are single mothers. The comparatively poor state of health of Ukrainian refugees also has a dampening effect, said IAB department head Yuliya Kosyakova. On the other hand, the comparatively high level of education and the elimination of the asylum procedure are positive factors.

Language as the key to success

Language support and participation in language courses are also positively correlated with the development of employment rates. “Targeted language support measures not only improve language skills in the short term, but also contribute to increasing employment rates in the medium to long term and can thus reduce the need for social benefits,” said IAB department head Herbert Brücker.

More than a million Ukrainians have arrived since the war began

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the number of Ukrainians living in Germany has risen from 156,000 to 1.24 million people – including many women and children. The federal government is currently trying to get more Ukrainians into working life with the help of a “job boost”.

The study used a base scenario that was considered realistic, based on an assessment of the local labor market conditions and the composition of the refugees in terms of education, health and family constellation. However, the scientists point out that the simulation is not a forecast.

Source: Stern

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