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How long will it continue to fall and why is it early to think that it has hit the bottom?

How long will it continue to fall and why is it early to think that it has hit the bottom?

The latest report from the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres threw a 9.8% drop in industrial activity during April. Furthermore, in the first quarter the magnitude of the decline was similar, 9.5%. This behavior reflects that the recession floor is still far from being reached. It also complicates the economy’s touted “V” recovery.

The only positive data is that the level of industrial activity was somewhat higher during April than during March, recording a monthly increase of 0.7% in the seasonally adjusted measurement.

And also that the year-on-year drop was less than that of the third month.

“In any case, it is still too early to suggest that we have left the industrial production floor behind us, and some rebound was to be expected after a particularly bad month,” the report explained.

Industry: which sectors are most complicated

Between the manufacturing sectors, The most pronounced declines occurred in the production of non-metallic minerals, plastics and base metals.

“Going forward, we still do not see clear signs that a recovery in activity can begin,” said Ferreres’ report.

And he warned: “We understand that this will not happen before “the adjustment phase focused on moderating inflation gives way to a new phase aimed at rebuilding family income.”

Until when will the industry continue to fall and why is it early to think that a floor has been reached?

In the case of Food, Drinks and Tobaccothis sector registered an expansion of 1% in the annual measurement during April, accumulating for the first four months a contraction in the range of 0.1%.

He behavior of the items continues to be very heterogeneous within the sector, with oil production growing 29.1% in April, and offsetting the sharp falls in items such as slaughter, beverages and tobacco.

For Machinery and equipmentproduction registered a decrease of 0.7% in April compared to the same month last year, accumulating a decrease of 21.2% for the period since.

In the detail provided by ADEFA on automotive terminals, During the fourth month, 42,974 vehicles were produced, 21% less than a year ago.

In the case of base metals, Manufacturing showed a contraction of 22.9% in April, accumulating a decrease of 26% for the first quarter of the year.

In this regard, the Argentine Chamber of Steel reported year-on-year declines in all production lines for the fourth month, highlighting crude steel (-26.3%), hot-finished steel (-28.9%), and cold-rolled steel (-28.6%). ).

In the case of Non-metallic mineralsthis sector linked to construction presented the sharpest drop of all manufacturing sectors.

Particularly, the decrease in April was 33.5% annually, accumulating for the four months that have elapsed a contraction of the sector of 30.4%.

In detail, the Portland Cement Manufacturers Association reported for the fourth month of the year a production 35.6% lower than that of the same month last year.

Source: Ambito

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