Since the beginning of the year, the trade balance was in surplus, allowing the Central Bank more than US$16,000 from the Milei era.
In 2024, Argentina is generating the largest trade surplus in the balance of goods (measured in current dollars, computed nominally) since 2001, but fresh funds of US$16,000 are expected for the year, according to a report from Marcelo Elizondopresident of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Argentina.
On the positive side, Elizondo highlights that it is a support for the needs of the Central Bank. On the negative side, he states that the reasons “not all are susceptible to being praised” where he lists the recession that reduces demand for imported goods, devaluation that impacts foreign trade results by making imports more expensive and the postponement of payments for imports.
“It is also true that a main reason for the aforementioned favorable result is the unusual drop in imports (in the period, exports grow in relation to the very bad previous year by 9.8% while imports fall in the interannual comparison by 23.8%; as shown below -source INDEC-). But, once again, this favors the monetary policy, exchange rate and even macroeconomics of government administration.
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Will Argentina have a record trade surplus in 2024?
According to Elizondo, responding to this question, it is neither good nor bad since the focus is not on the commercial or productive aspects but on the exchange rate (and the political impact that this generates).
Additionally, it should be added to the above that it is foreseeable that in the current year Argentina (even though it is expected that the trade balance will show some less generous monthly numbers in the remainder of the year) will achieve a annual trade surplus also record.
Below is a comparative estimate of the forecast for 2024 (annual) compared to previous years, with a result expected for 2024 favorable value exceeding US$16,000 million, concluded Elizondo.
Source: Ambito
