The consulting firms have already made their bets for the May data

The consulting firms have already made their bets for the May data

It is worth remembering that Caputo assured over the weekend that if he had been asked two months ago “if inflation was going to reach one digit in the second semester. We were in March. Well, it reached one digit in April. Then they said, ‘no , but it cannot go below 7%.’ Well, it is below 5%. That is the most important thing we can give to people. Inflation is essential for recovery, because that generates a normality that you do not see in Argentina. “a long time ago,” he said in a television interview.

Inflation: what the main consulting firms say

Regarding the estimated projections for May, the main one is that of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank based on the estimates of the most recognized private consulting firms, calculated that inflation in the fifth month reached 5.2% and projected a price increase of 146.4% for the yearabout 15 points below what was forecast last month.

Inflation estimates for May 2025 are at levels of 72.3% annually for the average number of consulting firms that report to the Central Bank. However, the top 10 consultants with the highest number of correct answers estimate that inflation would be 69.3% annually.

It is worth remembering that the thermometer of price dynamics already showed a clear sign of low inflation, since last week the cost of living data for the City of Buenos Aires was known, which stood at 4.4%.

inflation supermarkets wholesale prices consumption


In this way, private measurements of inflation for May are between 4.3% and 5%. For example, the CPI of the Freedom and Progress Foundation showed an increase of 4.3% in May, and the interannual variation reached 276.9%, showing the first deceleration in 10 months. For its part, Orlando J. Ferreres calculated a CPI of 4.6% for the fifth month of the year and 279.7% year-on-year, which would imply a drop of 10 points compared to April in this last indicator.

From Marina Dal Pogetto’s consulting firm, EcoGo, indicated that inflation in May would be 4.8% monthly. In this way, it would be the best monthly data in more than two years, since January 2022 (3.8%). EconviewsMiguel Kiguel’s consulting firm, concluded 4.7% inflation for May.

The consultant C&Tmeanwhile, revealed that in May there was a price increase for Greater Buenos Aires of 4.6%, the lowest since April 2022. For its part, FIEL did not release the data, but noted that the drop is notable. inflation in these months, although they do not consider that said deceleration will extend.

Source: Ambito

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