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They warn that the BCRA accumulation scheme is beginning to look exhausted

They warn that the BCRA accumulation scheme is beginning to look exhausted
They warn that the BCRA accumulation scheme is beginning to look exhausted

Despite the fact that the Government denies every week that it does not intend to change its policy for the dollarthe reality is that among market operators doubts continue to grow. From the sector they understand that the scheme used until now by the central bank to add reserves “it looks like it’s exhausted.”

The look of the brokers is not based on the opinions of consultants, but on hard data from reality. Until now, the entity led by Santiago Bausili had been buying dollars in a sustained and abundant manner, and now it is not.

This is because You can no longer step on the payment of imports for 30, 60, 90 and 120 days, as indicated from the beginning of this year. The Central Bank has new competitors in the Single and Free Exchange Market, and the harvest dollars have not finished appearing.

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According to data from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI), the monetary authority sold in six of the thirteen rounds in June, accumulating just US$25 million so far this month. “This amount contrasts markedly with what was accumulated in the first thirteen business days of the previous months”, warns the brokerage company in a report for investors.

It stands out that the BCRA bought US$2,114 million in January, US$1,778 million in February, US$2,109 million in March, US$2,591 million in April and US$1,984 million in May.

“Although private demand is at its highest levels in the current administration given that more and more imports can access the MULC, “The reserve accumulation scheme with stocks begins to look exhausted with an offer that no longer has traction as before,” says the job.

In fact, it is noted that despite the Government’s denials and clarifications regarding an eventual jump in the exchange rate, it could be forced to leave the stocks to resume accumulation.

“Faced with a demand and a private supply that begin to play against one of the main objectives of the Milei administration, “We wonder if the release of the stocks could be anticipated,” say the PPI economists.

The report clarifies that “it is an alarm signal that BCRA sales have advanced from the third quarter to June, a month that is characterized by high istationality of the liquidation of agriculture and the accumulation of reserves.”

“This week it will be key to see if the monetary authority’s sales extend, and, if so, their magnitude, in a context in which the supply of exporters should normalize in the absence of holidays,” the study indicates.

How many dollars would there be left to pay off the field?

As PPI states, the market believes that lAgricultural producers will be liquidating their harvest as little as possible awaiting a potential jump in the official dollar. But The Rosario Stock Exchange says otherwise.

“So far this year In total, that is, by both MULC and CCL, 40% of the annual projected amount (US$10,791 million) has been settled. mostly in line with 41% average at the same height for the last five years”says the Rosario entity.

The report adds that this implies that “US$16,091 million would remain to be settled, of which US$12,580 would go to make up the foreign exchange supply of the official exchange market yu$s3,512 would make up the CCL if the “Blend Dollar” formula were not changed.”

The work, which bears the signatures of Julio Calzada, Emilce Terré and Tomás Rodríguez Zurroindicates that this estimate, in general terms, is that for the “agricultural dollar income” recovers less than the projected volume of exports Due to the drop in international pricessince the accumulated foreign exchange income as of May is in line with previous campaigns.

What risks are there if the different dollars are unified?

The fund manager WISE also states that Milei management has growing difficulties to support the scaffolding of the dollar. “We already know that the Government “The elimination of the stocks is not on their short-term agenda, however this is a pending matter that they will have to address at some point (end of the year?)”, says the society in an editorial.

In that sense, he points out: “We understand that There is a risk that a run will be generated, but with planning and the entry of fresh dollars into the economy, unification is a viable task that must necessarily be addressed.”

Source: Ambito

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