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The market anticipated the June data and warned about the rise in food prices in July

Most consulting firms estimated that Inflation halted its deceleration path in June by being located at a monthly rate close to 5%. In addition, Early projections for July indicate that the number could return to the 4% rangedue to lower increases in regulated prices, but indicating higher increases in food.

This Friday, INDEC will release the official inflation data for June. As a preview, this week The City of Buenos Aires reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 4.8%compared to 4.4% in May.

In parallel, the median of the estimates of the consulting firms and financial entities that participated in the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) resulted in an estimated increase of 5.2%It is worth remembering that in May prices rose by 4.2%.

PromptlyAmbit monitored the following private sector projections for the cumulative sixth month of 2024:

  • PPI 5.8%
  • Balance: 5.5%
  • LCG 5.2%
  • CyT: 4.9%

Market does not expect inflation to break 4% in 2024: July began with acceleration in food price increases

Looking ahead, the market expects a return to disinflationary growth, but does not expect the monthly rate to break 4% before 2025. For July, the REM projection predicts 4.8%.

The consultant EcoGodirected by the renowned economist Marina Dal Poggettoprojected for the current month an average increase of 4.1% a general level.

“The data is still preliminary and subject to change. This projection is in response to the decision to postpone the increases in gas and electricity prices until next month, as well as the decision to reduce the increase in the fuel tax, which would result in a lower impact on the price at the pump,” they added.

According to EcoGo’s survey, food prices rose 1.5% in the first week of July, the highest figure since the fourth week of May.

Along the same lines, LCG estimated food inflation at 1.8%bringing the average for the last four weeks to 4.2%, the highest figure since the third week of April.

Source: Ambito

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