To put it into perspective, Argentina’s main export product is expected to collapse by 23% in 2024. According to calculations by Salvador Vitelli, an economist at Romano Group, With this drop, soybeans return to 2006 values measured in real terms.
The downward trend only adds obstacles to the situation.The most sensitive front for the Government’s plans since producers have practically no incentive to liquidate: neither for international price nor for dollar blend since the CCL continues with a downward trend below $1,300.
This leads to a lower dollar income and the incentive for producers to keep the grains in silo bags, taking advantage of low-interest credit to finance themselves in the long term and waiting for the outlook to improve.
Liquidation of soybeans in dribs and drabs
Although the decline in the pace of liquidation was less considerable in agriculture than in the rest of the export sectors during a June that showed the first deficit in the exchange balance since October 2023, the truth is that There is still a lot of soybeans left to be sold. Grain sales in recent weeks have been largely supported by the late corn harvest, according to industry sources.
While, There are still about 24 million tons of soybeans in the silos.There are more than 7 million tons of the oilseed already delivered but with a price pending to be fixed. This means that the field still holds around US$13 billion.
This Sunday, at the Rural, Milei asked ruralists for patience and dashed expectations of an announcement regarding withholdings.
As for the international grain market, With slightly drier forecasts for the United States, the first days of last week inspired increases and interesting purchases of corn and soybeans were recorded. However, North American and Brazilian producers still have a lot of physical grain and They took advantage to sell, ironing out the prices.
“The remaining soybeans will continue to be stored awaiting a better input-output ratio, and while corn is more likely to be sold, there are delays anyway,” explained Dante Romano, professor and researcher at the Center for Agribusiness and Food at the Universidad Austral.
Source: Ambito
