In July, the total balance of loans in pesos to the private sector reaches a level of $33.6 billion, representing a rise in the last 365 days by $22.7 billion, equivalent to 208.5% per year, values that are below the inflation of the periodor, if we consider the last twelve months and taking into account that the indices corresponding to the month analyzed have not yet been released.
The CPI value estimates carried out by the consulting firms, place it close to the value of last month and slightly below 5%, consequently yielding a accumulated for the last 12 months of approximately 267%, estimated First Capital Group.
During the last month, there is again an increase of $4.8 billion in nominal values, which represents 16.5%, clearly above the price index of the month, linking a series that has already three consecutive periods of growth in real termsdue to which we can now confirm that we are facing a trend in progress of placements to the private sector by the Bank.
Personal loans
The line of personal loans rose in nominal terms by 22.8% monthly, the balance reached $4,986,529 million for the accumulated total, presenting aAn interannual growth of 243.2%, compared to $1,453,124 million at the end of the same month of the previous year.
“While we must emphasize that thes annual nominal increases Although the prices remain below inflation, the monthly variations of the last four months far exceed the values adjusted for inflation, thus concretizing a growth in real terms. The positive variation that this line exhibits is more striking, since it occurs during a month in which traditionally the demand for New credits are overshadowed by the perception of the Christmas bonus by formalized workers“, Barbero explained.
Credit cards
The operation through credit cards registered a balance of $ 9,921,768 million, which means a 16.9% nominal increase compared to the close of last monthclearly above the inflation values expected for this period.
The year-on-year growth, reached 205.1%, falling below the estimated inflation levels for the year. ¨The commercial promotions of sales in fixed installments, with or without interest, are becoming more widespread in view of the expectation that inflation rates in the coming months will remain at limited levels. At the same time, the Banks are updating credit limits to encourage the use of plastic“, Barbero said.
Mortgage credits
As for the lines of mortgage creditsincluding those adjustable by inflation/UVA, during July had a rise of 8.6% compared to the stock of $ 624,859 million of the previous month, accumulating a total balance at the close of $678,764 million and a year-on-year increase of 52%, all in nominal terms.
¨For the second consecutive month, we see that this line, which has been lagging for so long due to the effect of the rise in price indices, is following the growth that is materializing in the rest of the chapters that make up credit to the private sector in pesos. It should be noted that although the trend is positive,the absolute values that are handled are well below what this line should have in a healthy and consolidated economy.
Pledge credits
The line of collateral credits presented a portfolio balance at the end of July 2024 of $1,754,176 million, growing 151.4% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2023 of $697,772 million, again remaining below inflation. The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked an increase of 24.5%. ¨This line is again positioned as the one that presents the highest relative growth figures as a result of the commercial initiatives that the sector needs to boost sales[, aseguró.
Préstamos comerciales
En relación a los préstamos comerciales, esta línea vio su saldo aumentado en un 13,4% en el mes, muy por encima de la inflación esperada, ubicándola con un stock de cartera de $ 14.162.284 millones. Respecto del mismo mes del año anterior la suba es de 227,9%, en este caso por debajo de los valores del IPC esperados para este período.
¨En el último trimestre, esta línea aportó el mayor volumen absoluto de crecimiento, motivo por el cual se ha constituido en el principal factor de crecimiento de las colocaciones bancarias en esta nueva etapa de la economía¨, finalizó.
Préstamos en dólares
En cuanto a los préstamos en dólares, respecto del mes pasado, el monto total ha presentado un aumento del 3,60%. En cuanto a la variación interanual, presentó un aumento del 77,6%. El stock de préstamos en dólares es de u$s6.668 millones. El 71% del total de la deuda en moneda extranjera sigue siendo la línea de préstamos comerciales, los cuáles aumentaron un 81,6% en el año y aumentaron un 1,3% con respecto al mes anterior.
Consumo en dólares con tarjeta de crédito
Las tarjetas de crédito registraron una suba interanual del 120,2% aunque con un comportamiento mensual irregular alternando alzas y bajas. En Julio hubo una suba del 17,6% respecto al mes anterior. El saldo al 31-07-24 aumenta a US$ 535 millones. Se mantiene la recuperación de los saldos, acercándose a los valores normales de operatoria existentes previos a la pandemia.
Source: Ambito
