The REM expects the CPI to be close to 3.7% in September, while the interannual rate was 127.4%. Is there a chance that the variation will reach 1% in the ninth month of the year, as Luis Caputo said?
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoin a meeting with Alycs carried out last week promised that the Inflation could reach 1% in September. However, the Market Expectations Survey (REM), which publishes monthly the Central Bank (BCRA), does not see that goal being reached by the ninth month of the year. And the main consulting firms, for their part, call it “ambitious” to the pattern predicted by the official.
The REM foresees that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is located close to the 3.7% in September, while those who best predicted that variable in the past project it close to 3.3%. On both occasions, the figure is far from the Guideline promised by Luis CaputoMeanwhile, the year-on-year rate stood at 127.4%.
The main consulting firms doubt that inflation will reach 1% in September and most agree that the CPI for the ninth month of the year would be close to or above 3%. In this regard, the economist from C&T Asociados, Camilo Tiscorniacataloged as “ambitious” to the official inflation rate. Without going any further, the consulting firm that he manages together with Maria Castiglioni projected a 4.4% variation for Julywhich would make it very difficult for the slowdown to reach 1%. However, the specialist acknowledged that the Government “insists” that the figure for the seventh month of the year would be below 4%.
From Analytica, Claudio Caprarulo He agreed that it is an ambitious goal, since the consultancy firm predicts the CPI to be “slightly above 3% monthly” for the ninth month of the year. “In the short term, we do not see a rate of that figure possible on a sustained basis.”. It will be the result of solving macroeconomic imbalances which, as expected, are still present in our economy,” he said.
Among the main variables to be resolved by the Government, Caprarulo highlighted:
- Highly appreciated exchange rate;
- Negative net reserves;
- Salaries are very low;
- Tariffs for some public services that are still expected to increaseif one seeks to reduce subsidies.
Only core inflation?
In the economist’s interpretation of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, Aldo Abramthe Minister of Economy could have spoken about the core inflation. “In September there is supposed to be a reduction of the PAIS tax and this is expected to have a downward impact on domestic prices, as well as on services. This will have an impact on the core and could slow down to 1%,” the specialist analyzed. June the core was located in 3.7% monthly.
However, Abram agreed with other experts that the 1% target is ambitious.“I think the CPI would most likely start with a 2“, he projected and explained: “It is difficult for the drop in COUNTRY TAX “The impact of the crisis is likely to be strong enough to offset the remaining recovery in the values of regulated prices and public service rates. On the other hand, it is also worth noting that in May and June there was a depreciation, which takes months to be reflected in the set of goods and services.”
For her part, the economist of Eco Go Rocio Bisangassured that in the consulting firm They do not see the possibility of the CPI reaching 1% in September“Although the slowdown in inflation is more than significant, the drag from previous months, combined with the fact that there are still pending increases in regulated items (transport, fuel, etc.) make it seem unlikely,” the specialist stressed.
By mid-August, for example, the number of people expected to increase transport ticket an average of 37%which will generate a statistical carryover for September. It also remains to be seen what will happen with the service rateswhich are still behind schedule.
Source: Ambito
