Inflation continues to fall in recent months, but analysts say it will be difficult to break 4%. For this reason, they recommend some options to diversify the portfolio.
The inflation reached 4% in July, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC)accumulating an increase of 263.4% in the last 23 months. So far this year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by 87% in the first seven months. Despite the downward trend, many investors are analyzing an replacement of their portfolios after this key fact. What alternatives is the city looking at?
First of all, it is worth considering what happened in July: investors in Lecap were the ones who gained the most in July, appreciating 6.7% monthly last month. This performance exceeded inflation (CER) and allowed a return in dollars of 13.4% due to the fall in the Contado con Liquidación (CCL). This panorama did not change in August.
Lecaps: the bet on the carry trade
Delphos Investment highlighted the importance of the real interest rates In this scenario, noting that while the liquefaction of deposits seems to have ended, positive real rates are still not fully reflected in the fixed-term deposits. Instead, these positive returns have begun to be observed in other instruments such as the Lecap recently issued. “The placement of the Lecap for June with a minimum TEM of 3.95% this week is a good example of this, considering a disinflation scenario for the next 12 months,” the consultancy indicated.
IEB Group continues to bet on short-term carry and maintains long-term lecaps in its portfolio. “Although financial FX have fallen around 5% since the highs of early August and are approaching values of $1250/1270, which is where they seem to have found a bottom twice during July, the demand for pesos will continue and we think that the carry may continue. We continue to prefer lecaps to carry out this strategy,” they explained.
Finally, Balance highlights its preference for short-term lecaps such as S30S4.
1816, He also states that the CER debt seems to be a good option. “We recognize that, as long as inflation continues to slow, the flow should continue to go towards the Lecaps 2025.”
markets stocks finance investments guru vivo stock exchanges bonds
Depositphotos
CER Bonds
Delphos Investment highlighted the attractiveness of CER bonds in its latest report. According to the consultancy, “the market continues to bet on a slowdown in inflation starting in September, with a monthly floor of 2.8% in the last quarter of the year.” This has especially boosted the long-term bonds adjusted for inflation, which have experienced a upward recalculation of their prices. Despite this correction, the prospect of inflation falling at a slower rate than the Government aspires to maintains interest in these instruments.
This analysis also coincides Consultationand adds its preference for the CER curve despite the fact that they believe that inflation will be slightly above what the REM expects in the next three months.
For small or retail investors, it is an option to invest in Mutual Funds that invest in Lecaps or CER securities (adjusted for inflation). Balanz adds his preference for the CER T2X5 bonus.
Equity
IEB Group The strategy highlights the decision to allocate a greater share of the portfolio to the Oil & Gas sector, “given the fundamentals that have been demonstrated and the great growth potential that the sector sustains, which results in an attractive combination of upside and defensiveness. Also maintaining the crazy nature of the rest of the sectors.”
Finally, Adcap Financial Group He affirms the need to build a diversified portfolio that includes stocks, rather than carry trade in pesos “given that the CCL level does not seem particularly attractive to us for this strategy.”
Source: Ambito
