In contrast to the optimistic scenario of the national government, the economist Javier Okseniuk He observed with moderation the variants of the national economy and industrial activity looking ahead to the remainder of 2024.
The executive director of the LCG consultancy firm considered that in “the following months, if economic activity rebounds, it will do so in moderate doses,” and pointed out that growth “It would be very marginal” and “the recovery will be very limited due to the persistent uncertainty, especially on the foreign exchange front.”
Interviewed by the NA Agency, he stressed that the fall of the Purchasing power of real wages and weak bank credit remain obstacles to economic growth and noted that GDP per capita in 2023 was 15% below that recorded in 2011. “It is a structural stagnation that will not be resolved quickly,” he said.
As possible paths to achieve recovery, he understood that it is necessary to “a supply shock” and a boost to investments: “The government is betting on investment, but we will only see results in sectors with high profit margins, such as energy“.
Later, he relativized the importance of the exchange rate controls: “I don’t think the cepo is a determining factor for investment in the short term. In a scenario of a currency run, the currency controls could even calm things down a bit.” “It is crucial to try to quickly obtain the missing dollar cushion, since not everything can be resolved with a devaluation,” Okseniuk concluded.
Javier Milei confirmed the economic course without devaluation
Confident in his economic policy, The President of the Nation predicted this Saturday that inflation will continue to fall. As he explained, Real inflation would be around 0.7% per month because there is a significant percentage, 2.4%, which would be due to the exchange controls. Once it is removed, the real rate would be 8% annually, he said in an interview with Radio Mitre.
According to Javier Milei, once inflation is under control, the economy will rebound after the major decline caused by the government’s adjustments. “The recovery is underway”he said. The economy had already hit a low point in the second quarter and now the rebound would come. We would be in the first phase of the recovery, which It would be seen in “the recomposition of salaries and the recovery of pensions” which would be fueling demand, he explained.
“We are being very successful both in the fight against inflation and in the battle against insecurity.”he said, adding that “the battle against inflation is not over, but it is well on its way.”
Source: Ambito
