He National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will release this Wednesday a key piece of information expected by the market: the inflation data of August. The main consulting firms surveyed by Scope They hope that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is located in the range that goes from 3.8% to the 4.4%.
The consultant EcoGoof Marina from Poggettoestimated that the price variation in August was 4%, with significant increases in the transportation area. In this case the increase in the collective for the AMBA, as well as the increases in fuels and tollspushed the general data upwards. “Increases in electricity and gas rates, along with prepaid health plans and education also contributedOutside of regulated markets, price advances were quite general, with nothing particularly noteworthy, except for a slight recovery in pork price “which was late,” explained the economist Rocio Bisang of EcoGo.
The CABA inflationwhich anticipates the data path of the INDECwas located in 4.2% monthly and in the first eight months of the year it accumulates a variation of 106.8%. This way, The Buenos Aires IPC failed to break through the 4% markbut it was almost one point below the previous figure. As Bisang pointed out, the most important increase was that of transportwhich was positioned in the 9%.
Consumption is not recovering and is helping to contain inflation
Although in recent months there has been a recovery – from very low levels – of wages, mainly registered wages, consumption levels are still too low. In July, consumption fell 10.2% year-on-yearaccording to the consultancy Focus Market of Damian Di Pace.
Real wages have risen sharply in recent months and have managed to recover almost all of the decline observed since December, but they remain at their lowest levels for the last 15 years, excluding the last six months, according to the Researcher at the Institute of Studies and Training of the CTA – Autónoma, Luis CamposThe specialist also points out that it is “very difficult” for assets to continue this growth path.
“Despite the certain recovery of wages, mainly in registered private sector, which is driving the improvement in consumption, we are still at low levels and this contributes to containing inflation”he assured Rocio Bisang.
For its part, the consulting firm C&T, for the GBA region, predicted that the monthly price increase was 3.8% in August, below the 4.5% (revised) of July and the 4% reported by INDEC for that month. In this way, the trend of price deceleration would be fulfilled. Meanwhile, the accumulated variation would be located in 238.8% and it would be the lowest so far this year.
“Transportation was the sector with the greatest increase due to the rise in taxis in CABA and buses. The rise in fuel and car insurance was also notable,” added the consulting firm they head. Maria Castiglioni and Camilo Tiscornia.
Meanwhile, from the consulting firm Analyticaestimated that in August the average CPI was located at 3.8%after its weekly survey of food and beverage prices will be positioned in 2.8%. The data from the consulting firm he presides over Ricardo Delgadowas 0.1 percentage points (pp) from the projection of Orlando J. Ferrereswhich predicted that it would be at the level of 3.9%with a core of 3.6%.
For the consultant FMyA, August inflation “was a little more complicated than expected”since the increases in food did not fall below 1% weekly, according to their calculations. In this framework, they warned that the core was positioned around the 3.5% and that the General CPI would be located at 3.8%without ruling out that it will reach 4% again.
The Liberty and Progress Foundation, for its part, confirmed that the Inflation data for August stood at 4.4%which would imply an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the Official measurement for July (4%). “The key behind this slight increase was the rise in regulated prices. Core inflation, meanwhile, continued its downward trend and stood at 3.5%, 0.3% less than the previous month,” they revealed.
Source: Ambito
