“With restrictions the country can grow, but without restrictions it can grow even more” pointed to Scope a high-ranking source from the Casa Rosada. In this regard, he said that “October will be a key month to see how we move forward with the release of restrictions.”
The official status expects to count on clarifications on the outcome of the tax whitewash, the progress of tax collection (after the moratorium and the modification in the payment of personal property) and the evolution of inflation, among other key variables.
Authorities are seeing favorable signs. One is what they consider the good result of the bleaching – In this regard, the possibility of extend the maturity -. Private calculations predict that some $40 billion could be regularized.
Related to this topic, are growing dollar deposits“Today we have more than 20 billion dollars in deposits and negative net reserves of around 5 billion, which means that we have improved a lot compared to when we took over; at that time we had 13 billion in deposits and reserves were negative 11 billion,” they assess at the Treasury.
International Monetary Fund
They also point out that has to improve the external front. In this sense, the recent 50 basis point reduction by the United States Federal Reserve and the prospect of a review of the surcharges charged by the International Monetary Fund, which would imply a saving of 300 million dollars annually.
Although regular contacts are maintained between the Argentine authorities and the IMF staff, the Ministry of Economy’s strategy contemplates that Formal talks to define a new agreement will not begin until the end of October (the current one expires at the end of the year).
The date is not arbitrary; it is expected that at the end of next month the multilateral organization will finally decide to reduce the surcharges it applies to nations that are highly indebted.
Also in this matter of foreign debt, a study that circulated in recent days in official offices estimates that, even in adverse conditions (for example, an increase in interest rates), The primary surplus required to maintain a constant debt/GDP ratio is close to that included in the 2025 Budget.
In other words, it is estimated that A surplus of 1.3% of GDP above primary expenditure is the fiscal effort necessary to ensure the sustainability of public debt.
The expectation of the team that leads Luis Caputo is that Argentina, today considered “the best student of the Fund” obtains a favorable refinancing of its liabilities.
The strategists of La Libertad Avanza also hope that an eventual victory of Donald Trump In early November, during the presidential elections in the United States (the country with the greatest decision-making power on the IMF Board), the country will be able to receive fresh money.
One fact that is being discussed internally in the Government is that the technicians were asked to calculate how much the foreign currency reserves had to be in order to completely release the restriction without any problems. The result was 35 billion dollars, “a figure that we could accumulate in seven years,” they ironically point out in the Ministry of Economy. Since no one is going to wait that long, they conclude that will have to take a share of the risk.
The economic team believes that, although the economy can continue to recover with the restrictions, For the activity to gain momentum, it is necessary to remove restrictions. “This is what will allow, for example, Argentina become eligible again for investment funds“, they point out in economic management.
Subject to the results obtained in these months, the Treasury Palace is working on the hypothesis of take significant steps towards dismantling the restriction at the beginning of next year.
Source: Ambito
