In recent months, The intervention of the Central Bank (BCRA) in the stock market to contain the exchange gap became one of the main sources of pressure for reserves. Import payments, debt obligations, and the services deficit were other factors that hinder the accumulation of dollars.
According to the exchange balance data released this Friday by the BCRA, Between July and August, the entity led by Santiago Bausili lost US$480 million to inject supply into the bond market and thus step on the prices of the MEP dollar and the CCL. It is worth noting that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) It has already questioned this modus operandi on several occasions, which may hinder negotiations regarding the renegotiation of the debt with said organization.
In August in particular, the outflow of dollars for this reason was US$153 million, which implied a slowdown compared to the “red” observed in the previous month. Still, it was the third balance item with the greatest negative result, behind the services balance (-US$614 million) and public debt payments (-US$406 million).
What concepts of the exchange balance put pressure on the reserves?
In the case of services, it was again the tourism which drove the outflow of foreign currency, in a context of strong exchange rate appreciation, which leads to fewer arrivals of foreigners to the country for vacations. On the debt side, he highlighted a payment of US$785 million to the IMF.
Likewise, the private debt implied a net expenditure of US$134 million, while the balance of goods It was positive at US$576 million, a figure slightly higher than that of July, but much lower than those that had been seen until May. The latter is a consequence of the normalization of access to foreign currency to pay for imports, which in August exceeded the value of external purchases actually made throughout the month.
Specifically, In the eighth month of the year, importers accessed the exchange market for a total of US$5,024 million, while imports of goods registered by the INDEC for that month were US$4,541 million.. “Import payments from most sectors during the month of August showed an interannual increase, highlighting the Automotive Industry, Chemical Industry, Rubber and Plastics, and Commerce sectors, with increases of 109%, 91% and 44%, respectively. “, highlighted the BCRA in the report published today.
It is worth remembering that in August the permits to access the official exchange market to pay for purchases from other countries were made more flexible, from the four previous installments (for 25% of the imported value each) to the two installments in force today (of 50%), payable 30 and 60 days from the nationalization of the product, respectively. This will generate pressure for reserves in the September-November period since in those months the 25% quotas will overlap with the 50% quotas.
Source: Ambito
