So far in 2024, the Argentine selective continues with his good streak and in the year registers an increase of 43% in dollars, and 83% in pesos.
In relation to the performance in pesos of Argentine assets, the best companies in the local market during this month were Black Hill, which registered an increase of 10.1% in pesosfollowed by Edenor, with an increase of 9.1% and closed the podium Transener, with a increase of 6.6%. Among the stocks that fell the most in September are YPF (-13.9%), Silver Commercial Society (-9.4%) and Southern Gas Carrier (-8.9%).
“We must also take into account that stocks were in a longer bullish rally than bonds, which still have a bullish journey ahead of them. Profit taking doesn’t look bad,” he explained. Emilse Córdoba, from Bell Bursátil, in dialogue with Scope. “I get the feeling that the effect of bleaching has a lot to do with it mainly, capital leaving stocks and going to fixed income“he added.
ADRs rose up to 15% in September, but YPF fell more than 10%
In September, among the ADRs that rose the most, the Edenor (+15.1%), followed by Black Hill (+13.7%) and IRSA (+13.3%).
Meanwhile, among those who fell the most are: YPF (-10.5%), Southern Gas Carrier (-5.7%) and, marginally, Supervielle (-2.9%).
Dollar bonds: there was a sovereign debt rally in September
Unlike stocks, dollar bonds rose strongly in September, with increases on average of 8%, driven, in part, by start of the US rate reduction cycle, that could shift capital flows to emerging countries.
This was reflected in the good performance of emerging bonds, with an advance of more than 5% in the last three months.
During the month, those that rose the most were Bonar 2041 (+11.4%), followed by Global 2035 (+11.1%) and the Global 2046 (+10.9%).
The country risk fell 10% in September to 1,290 points, according to the JP Morgan measurement.
“The parities of Argentine securities are at their highest since 2020. Local factors such as the good performance of the Central Bank in the MULC, the notice to purchase the dollars corresponding to interest payments, and the rumors of a REPO that guarantees the capital payment also helped,” evaluated Maximiliano Donzelli, Investment Strategies Manager atinvestonline.
For its part, The fiscal surplus and the trade surplus remain very tight. “We continue to see value in the sovereign hard dollar debt given the potential rise in the event that the country risk compresses, and the limited risk provided by the low parity at which it is maintained,” remarked theinvestonline analyst.
Meanwhile, The Bopreales gained 6% in the month, except for series 2, which fell 0.5%.
Going to the peso segment, the short CER tranche rose 2.5% in September, while the long tranche fell 2%.
Finally, Lecaps achieved average increases of 3% in the month. At closing prices, they remained yielding at levels between 43.06% TNA (10/14/24) and 57.92% TNA (9/30/25), reported from SBS.
International markets: Wall Street remained bullish and the surprise came from China
In this way, the three main selections of the NYSE closed in positive territory, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%, the industrial Dow Jones 1.5% and the technological Nasdaq 100 closing with a rise of 2%.
“The most interesting data that September left us in relation to the North American market has to do with the lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which in its meeting in the middle of the month decided to cut the cost of credit by about 50 basis points, data which took by surprise most analysts, who expected a cut of about 25 basis points”, Donzelli commented.
At the press conference after the decision, Powell made it clear that the US central bank is going to resort to interest rate cuts to protect the labor market, which has currently gained greater importance, in part, because inflation in the North American economy is more moderate and contained.
Outside of Wall Street, the most relevant data of the month had to do with China. More precisely, in the last week of the month, China’s central bank unveiled a broad package of monetary stimulus measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy, underscoring growing alarm within Xi Jinping’s government over slowing growth and depressed investor confidence.
This way, The People’s Bank of China cut a benchmark short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the amount of money banks must keep in reserve to the lowest level since at least 2018.
Thus, Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), JD.com (JD) and NIO (NIO) operated with strong increases during the ninth month of the year and after that announcement.
Cedars: Which ones rose the most in September?
Under this scenario, there were several cedars what is stood out during September. The company that rose the most during the ninth month of the year was NIO (NIO), that jumped a shocking 73%. In this case, the bullish momentum is in line with a good month for the Chinese financial market, and also rose after the Chinese electric vehicle maker later revealed a new cash injection worth almost $2 billion from existing shareholders.
Secondly, the Cedear of JD.com (JD)which rose 47%. The reason behind this strong increase was that The e-commerce company also had to do with the stimulus measures announced by the Asian giant. As a colorful fact, in August, the Chinese online retailer announced a new share buyback program worth US$5 billion, which will allow the company to buy back its shares over the next 36 months, highlighted from Iol Invertironline .
While, finally, in third place, the Cedear of the American airline was located United Airlines (UAL), that won 26%. In this case, the airline’s increase coincides with the Fed rate cut. In a more accommodative monetary policy environment, the company will benefit from an increase in discretionary consumption and lower fuel costs, making it an attractive option with low valuations and high projected growth.
Source: Ambito
