The CEO of EcoGo, Marina Dal Poggettowas present at the event We are Industrythe manufacturing sector congress that takes place in Costa Salguero between this Wednesday and Thursday. During her speech, the economist assured that if the Government does not obtain financing “will have a problem”, while predicting that the 2025 maturities “They are paid with recession or with a Repo ”.
The lack of dollars is the discussion that is gaining ground as the first year of Javier Milei’s administration progresses. Pay attention to the US$17,000 million that Argentina owes in 2025Dal Poggetto distinguished two possible geopolitical scenarios and their impact on the country: “keep going, Trump saves us“, the first, and the second that of a “correction accompanied by the IMF”.
In the first case, if the Republican candidate were to win the US elections, the country could benefit in terms of financing and so on “the evolution line of the EMAE would grow by 5% on average” and “it would return to 2023 levels”, that is, higher than this year.
However, the economist also explained that at least ten years that the country “does not grow, it had falls and rebounds,” but it always returns to the original level. “The economy is stagnant”, he warned.
On the other hand, he stated that in the second scenario, a correction, the rebound of the economy “it wouldn’t be linear”. “On average, the economy could grow 2.5%”, as he projects.
In any case, he noted a common factor between the two scenarios and that is that “These are all scenarios where you don’t get out of the trap.” Despite this, interprets that the market’s reading of the benefits of a regime change, “somehow it holds”.
Dollar: exchange controls will not be eliminated
Regarding this last point, the economist understands that, for the moment, “They are not going to remove the controls“, since “the IMF does not ask for that.” “It will ask you to start normalizing, but First it is a different monetary and exchange scheme”, he analyzes. For Dal Poggetto, in the view of the local market “the carry is still long“, given that “It is set up for the official dollar to continue at 2%“and the gap is prolonged”in a contained way”.
The representative of the consulting firm EcoGo nor does he see a close possibility in the time of unify the exchange rate with the parallels, rather the economic team could be limited to a jump”at the level of the gap. This is because the financial dollar still maintains restrictions. “If you loosen capital controls, financial assets could be worth more, according to supply and demand.”” explains Dal Poggetto.
These limitations appear as a problem in an economy that, according to the specialist, maintains high dependence on the stocks. In that sense, to make it independent from exchange restrictions, “it is important to have a fiscal program that cuts monetary financing of the deficit, but also a financial one”.
At the same time, he took a few minutes to mention the level of Argentine debt. As he understands, the level of debt “not too high in international comparison“, but the problem is that the country “you don’t have credit” and yes maturities between pesos and dollars of almost 11% of GDP“equivalent to 70% of total spending after adjustment.”
Faced with the marked fragilities, for Dal Poggetto the priority is to eliminate the scheme known as “dollar blend” and have a scheme where the exchange rate, rate, and inflation “converge to a higher level” but “under a longer scenario.”
Imports: the dollars “are not there”
Regarding the latest announcement by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputocarried out by the social network X on the reduction of import tariffs, the economist maintains that the Government “did not make a full openingbut it is asking for price reductions.” He also states that dollars “they are not” so that there is a “import boom”, which makes it difficult to recompose the activity.
“The lawsuit falls in a context where the protection was sustained. The opening is not total, but you open in a context of exchange rate delay, and in a context of shorter import payments“added the economist.
Finally, he pointed out that the devaluation that took place at the beginning of the year “should have normalized the debt stock“, however, “Today the debt is the same and the reserves are negative”. At the same time, he highlighted that the country risk is 1300 basis points and that the financial scheme “depends on the stocks”, while the debt in dollars “It is paid with recession or a Repo scheme”.
“The dependence on the stocks continues, they want to generate exchange rate delays with a negative interest rate in a context of stocks. Is it good or bad? From politics, it is what has always been done, from the possibility of reaching October… you are short of dollars. Those of us who look at fundamentals see that dollars are missing”Dal Poggetto concluded at the event.
Source: Ambito
