The market tries to read the “clues” that the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoleave a few drops to try to determine when and how the exit from the exchange rate will be.
On Monday he once again confirmed that we will leave the stocks when “do not generate stress either in people or in the economy” and highlighted that the shortage of pesos on the street is already evident. He also recalled that The exchange rate is currently lower than in Decemberwhen Javier Milei assumed the Presidency.
In turn, the economist Joel Lupierihe told Scope that “The Government continues to bet on the liquidity of the market in pesos but it never ends up being risky on the fixed date”. In this regard, he opined that He doesn’t think it will happen this year. and yes it will happen throughout 2025, “at least not before the midterm elections.”
“We should think about a horizon of at least one year. That is, if the Government fails to achieve any of its electoral expectations, in that case, we could think about freeing the exchange rate, but In the middle, the important thing will be to see the evolution of the march and the trajectory that inflation and public finances follow.“, broad.
Caputo commented on the “lost opportunity”
The Minister of Economy revealed in a television interview that in June, When the dollar was at $1,500, “all the doomsayers came out to say that we lost the possibility of getting out of the stocks, that the dollar was going to two thousand.” But he assured that when “we said that the dollar was going to converge to the official exchange rate“, “It is not out of optimism because we know what we are doing.”
“I consider that it can be taken as a path announced by the country’s economic authority not in temporal terms but in an enunciation of tangible steps to follow, which will be done in an orderly and non-traumatic manner as happened, for example, in 2016. The problem today is not the temporary shortage of pesos, mainly due to the fall in income and savings, but rather the expectation that it will be perceived as cheap or not.the economist told this medium Federico Glustein.
In this regard, he revealed that “The minister plays less politically and more economically, which is a fundamental factor for the creativity of what he has been working on in the matter.”
Stock market: how they evaluate the exit from the “traps”
“If I look at the financial market, I see that bonds and the stock market rise, while the dollar falls, so we cannot say that the market is taking it badly”he told Ámbito, the financial analyst Christian ButlerHowever, he expanded his vision: “Now when you really talk to people in the sector, everyone is concerned about this change in the government’s view, not that of the stocks.”
The reference is to the statements of President Javier Milei when a month ago he refused to devalue and said that “It is false that you cannot grow with stocks.” “It seems that they are preparing the ground to say that the trap is not so bad, or that we can continue with the trap”Buteler explained about the view of the market and said that “in the long run or short with stocks, the country does not end up growing.
And finally he mentioned other “inconsistencies” that the economic plan is having: “You have the stocks, but You also have an official dollar that is falling behind, because you continue with a ‘crawling peg’ at 2% when inflation continues in the range between 3% and 4%that is, it is from below, So that makes the jump worse at the moment of departure.“.
Source: Ambito