The Government plans issue debt in 2025 for a total of US$144,204 million between local and foreign currency, which foresees cancel maturities for US$142,088 million. This means that next year it will take on new net debt for US$2,115 million.
“The 2025 Budget bill incorporates the rule of balanced fiscal result on a cash basis – primary result plus interest, with its particular reflection in accounting,” the study states. Quantum then states that “under this hypothesis, the financial program expressed there reflects the financing needs that arise from debt maturities, both in local and foreign currency.
“Given the strategy of Liability Management and the Zero Deficit Fiscal Policy Context“Covering the funding needs in 2025 – both in pesos and foreign currency – should not represent a problem,” the consultancy clarifies.
The report then maintains that by analyzing the financial sources and applications, it can be concluded that next year andThe national government is going to “continue deindexing the debt” given that “Nominal net amortizations of BONCER are expected for US$11,769 million.”
On the other hand, the team led by Pablo Quirno in the Finance Secretariat will continue to “extend deadlines” by canceling LECAPs for US$3,432 million and the issuance of capitalizable securities (BONCAP) for the equivalent of US$12,337 million.
Meanwhile, it is expected “maintain the accounting of interest on issues as capital movements” and “reduce exposure to foreign jurisdiction and foreign currency debt.”
Quantum also maintains that it will seek “maintain relatively stable debt with international organizations” since a net increase of “only US$565 million” is expected.
The consulting firm also estimates that “no IMF income is expected from a new agreement” while it is projected to “increase net debt by US$2,115 million,”“a figure very similar to the maturity of the BOPREAL next year (US$2,117 million between capital and interest).”
The work also points out that “The total gross maturities are estimated at US$142,088 million, equivalent to 20% of GDP”. “If the main holdings of intra-public sector debt – BCRA and FGS – are discounted from the total, the maturities would amount to US$110,328 million (15.5% of GDP).”
Of the gross total, US$122,891 million equivalent are in local currency (17.3% of GDP), according to Quantum. At the same time, slightly less than half (US$58.6 billion or 8.2% of GDP) corresponds to maturities of LECAPs and LEFIswhich, by their nature, are short-term instruments and are found to a significant extent in the portfolio of commercial banks (the total in the case of LEFIs).
What will happen to the debt in dollars
Regarding the total maturities in foreign currency, Quantum indicates that there will be US$19,197 million (2.7% of GDP) and most of them are Non-transferable bills with the BCRA (1.5% of GDP).
Secondly, There are debt securities (0.9% of GDP) and the rest are from international organizations. There are no capital maturities with the IMF but there are interest payments of US$2.7 billion (0.4% of GDP). There are maturities with the World Bank and the IDB for a total of US$1.3 billion.
Source: Ambito
