Transport development: Researcher calls for climate orientation in transport policy

Instead of forecasts, the federal government should align its transport policy with climate goals, according to Wuppertal transport researcher Thorsten Koska. “What is missing is strategic federal transport planning that takes an integrated look at all aspects of transport and develops a target image for the transport of the future,” said the scientist at the Wuppertal Institute of the German Press Agency. The federal traffic forecast presented the day before was not sufficient in this sense.

According to this forecast, traffic will increase significantly by 2040, especially on rail. Road traffic is decreasing somewhat. However, the car remains the dominant means of transport. The study serves the federal government as a basis for transport planning in the coming years.

For Koska, it is therefore a circular argument: the forecast is based on the federal government’s existing investment plans for infrastructure, which still provide more funds for roads than for rail, for example. “This assumption then leads to a continued high share of road traffic in the model – in this specific case particularly road freight transport,” he said. The federal government will then respond to this forecast with more resources for this mode of transport. “This actually creates more traffic.”

The 2040 traffic forecast is also based on extremely conservative political premises, criticizes Koska. “Based on its assumptions and framework conditions, this forecast prescribes a further continuation of road investments.”

For example, the study authors assume that the commuter allowance will remain in its current form or that the vehicle tax will remain constant. But all of these are adjustment screws that could be used to reduce road traffic even further. “You have to ask yourself to what extent it even makes sense to create a forecast that is not aimed at meeting climate goals,” said Koska.