And, as the investment advisor explains, Gaston Lentini in dialogue with Scope, “This year will, without a doubt, be one of the most memorable in history.” The analyst recommends prudence as the pillar of investment guidance in these times of financial euphoria. A look that matches that of Quamtum Financethe consulting firm that runs Daniel Marxfrom where they point out that the path of Argentine assets in 2024 “was shocking, but it is difficult to think that increases will continue at the speed observed.”
November: a bright and difficult month to forget
Guido Nigrafinancial advisor & sales trader at Balanz Capitalcomments in dialogue with this medium and in line with Lentini that November closed as a month that will remain in the memory of investors. And from the start, Donald Trump’s victory in the US generated euphoria in Argentine assets. “Both sovereign bonds and the S&P Merval registered significant increases, also driven by good fiscal data, exchange stability and better-than-expected inflation,” he comments.
It stands out that, in addition, the BCRA accumulated two consecutive months of buying streak “thanks to the liquidation of crops and the favorable results of money laundering.” This contributed to a sustained reduction in country risk and an accelerated rise in sovereign bonds, which marked increases of up to 16.3% measured in dollars along the curve in the month.
The peso market
Throughout November, the strategy of “carry trade” was the clear winner. Investments at fixed rates in local currency through Capitalizable Treasury bills (Lecaps), Boncaps and CER instruments were winners, particularly with a stable dollar, which gives free rein to the repurchase of more dollars in the future. and stands out Nigra that, despite the devaluation of the Brazilian real, which reached a value of almost 6 reais per dollar (BRL/USD)the local exchange market showed “remarkable calm and stability“.
Nigra remember that, towards the end of November, the National Treasury again issued Lecaps and Boncaps and also incorporated bonuses adjusted for CER“which resulted in a successful placement.” In this way, the market anticipates an accelerated decline in inflation, which generates a favorable environment to position itself in assets in pesos with a fixed rate and maintain the strategy of carry trade.
However, Nigra warns that a significant part of the flow currently destined for Lecaps could migrate towards adjusted assets CERwhich are relatively cheap compared to similar instruments. On average, these assets operate at CER +6%“which represents an excellent opportunity to arbitrage positions and ensure returns adjusted for inflation plus rate”, especially for those who consider that the exchange rate could be lifted at the beginning of 2025.
November, the stock market and strategy
In the stock market, increases predominated in most assets. Nigra highlights YPFwith profits greater than 50%, followed by Metrogas (METR) and Cablevision Holding (CVH).
lentini reminds its clients of the importance of analyzing the sectors lagging behind in the cycle. From practicing this exercise comes constructionwhich shows potential to rebound. In this sense, the strategist prefers to think about Ternium (TXAR) over Aluar (ALUA) when evaluating companies linked to this sector within the General Panel. Likewise, among the two main cement companies in the country, the analyst considers that Loma Negra (LOMA) is a more favorable option than Holcim (HARG), “when thinking about a position towards the end of the year and betting on a sustained recovery of the real economy during the summer.”
Pablo LazzatiCEO of Insider Financeratifies its position and mentions that companies related to the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) have high growth potential in the short and medium term. “To take advantage of this bull-market we recommend four actions in particular: Agrometal (AGRO), Matba Rofex (MTR), BYMA (BYMA) and Banco Macro (BMA)”, he says.
And explains that Agrometal (AGRO) can capitalize on everything related to investments in the mining and oil segment by RIGI and, in addition, points out that its price “has not risen that much since last December.” Macro Bank (BMA), for its part, is one of the largest companies in the local banking sector after the last merger it carried out, and “It does not have the same correlation in price with the increase experienced by Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL)”. It still has an upward path to capitalize on in the medium term, he points out.
Lazzati confesses “MTR (MTR) shares have our full attention.” It happens that this paper represents a conglomerate between Matba, Rofex and MAEthe three financial markets that came together and now trade as a single stock. “In MTR (MTR), particularly, we see that the current price does not yet reflect the potential growth that the Argentine financial market could achieve if the Government manages to maintain financial and macroeconomic stability as until now,” he says.
Lastly, Lazzati recommends BYMA (BYMA), which is the ticker for “Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets”, has an interesting cash flow and bonds, added to the good operating results of the flows. “However, we consider that the share price still does not match its true value,” he concludes.
About fixed income for December
In this context, Lentini points out that it is key to pay attention to new tenders for Negotiable Obligations that can offer rates higher than 8%, “since they represent an interesting opportunity to diversify portfolios.” From Delphos Investment, They agree and remember that next week Banco Galicia plans to raise US$400 million through a six-month bond, with a rate that is estimated to be a little lower than that obtained by Supervielle (SUPV) (4.7%).
For its part, Vista Energy (VIST) is scheduled to broadcast up to US$700 millionexpandable from an initial amount of US$500 million. There may be some opportunity in these corporate loans, according to analysts.
Lentini comments that, regarding the sovereign bonds“may be attractive for riskier investment profiles, since current rates are “much higher” than those of a year ago. In addition, there is a great possibility of exchange between Argentine sovereign bonds under national lawwhich adds a strategic component, swipe.
“For those seeking double-digit returns in the medium and long term, we recommend prioritizing bonds subject to foreign law, such as global 2035 (GD35) instead of bonar 2035 (AL35). “Although the country seems to be moving towards economic normalization, it is essential to maintain prudent portfolio management,” he concludes.
Finally, Nigra points out that With the macroeconomic and fiscal optimism that persists in Argentina, sovereign bonds still present an attractive positive asymmetric risk compared to other countries in the region. “Those with a short tranche, such as 2029 and 2030, both global and Bonares, offer a potential ‘upside’ of more than 20% in dollars if Argentina converges to an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 8% along the curve “.
Source: Ambito
