New elections in the North Atlantic: Iceland elects new parliament early

After the collapse of the previous government coalition, a new parliament is being elected early in Iceland. Almost 270,000 eligible voters are called upon to cast their vote – more than one in ten of them have already ticked the box before the actual election day. For everyone else, the polling stations are open today as scheduled between 9 a.m. and 10 p.m. (local time). 63 parliamentary seats are up for grabs.

There are no forecasts immediately after the polling stations close, but partial results are gradually expected from different parts of the country over the course of the night. A preliminary final result is expected to be known on Sunday morning German time – provided that the currently harsh weather conditions, especially in the east of the North Atlantic island, do not lead to delays in voting and counting.

Unusual coalition collapsed

The next parliamentary election in Iceland was actually scheduled for late summer 2025. However, disagreements in Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s three-party coalition caused the government to collapse in mid-October, whereupon President Halla Tómasdóttir dissolved parliament early at the request of the head of government.

Benediktsson only took over the post of head of government from long-time Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir in April. She resigned from her government position in the spring because of her bid for the Icelandic presidency, but then lost the election to Tómasdóttir.

Meanwhile, Benediktsson failed to keep the atypical government coalition, which reached across the political center, alive. The head of the liberal-conservative Independence Party justified the exit from the coalition with differences of opinion on, among other things, migration and energy issues. However, observers believe this is a pretext to put an end to the difficult alliance with the Progress Party and the Left-Green Movement, formerly led by Jakobsdóttir.

“Katrín Jakobsdóttir held this coalition together for seven years. She was the glue of the government with these three parties that ranged from right to left,” says political science professor at the University of Iceland, Eva Heida Önnudóttir. Jakobsdóttir’s departure ultimately heralded the collapse of the coalition, in which there was only agreement on a few issues.

Opportunities for both the right and center alliances

According to surveys, at least three parties will likely be necessary for a government majority in the future. Until recently, Kristrún Frostadóttir’s Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) and Thorgerdur Katrín Gunnarsdóttir’s Liberal Reform Party (Vidreisn), which was only founded in 2016, were very popular with those surveyed. The three previous governing parties, on the other hand, must expect losses.

Who will form the future government is still highly uncertain. The chances are 50-50 between a possible conservative-right three-party coalition led by Benediktsson and a liberal center coalition that could consist of Vidreisn, Samfylkingin and another party, says Önnudóttir. The Progress Party, which is politically in the middle, could play a key role.