Javier Milei replicates officials and the financial formulas of Mauricio Macri’s management, with the expectation of other results?
Last year, even before the 2023 presidential campaign, Mauricio Macri He said in all the media and audiences that he was very satisfied with what was done during his Presidency (evidently the worst of the last 40 years) although it would make everything faster.
Since the moment of the assumption of the current administration we find that the officials are the same, for the most part, as in the Macri period. Proof of this we can see that they reappeared at the concert Patricia Bullrich and Federico Sturzenegger -both inevitable in every center-right/right government since before the turn of the century-, as Lopez Murphy and also Juan Bautista “Tata” Yofreso we can call this administration being characterized by reissuing the ghost train of the 90s adding to the ineffable Luis Caputo and Santiago Bausili.
As an example of all this, we must remember that since 1/16/2016 it was hidden behind the DNU of appointment to the commission in the CSJN of the judges. Rosenkrantz and Rosatti in the Official Gazette a communication from the BCRA that began to authorize the liquidation of exports after 150 days and with a limit of up to US$ 2 million daily withdrawal, increasing in May 2016 to 5 million daily, in September 2016 setting the liquidation at 2 years, in November to 5 years and May 2017 bringing the deadline to liquidate them to 10 years.
Culminating after the Fantastic Four press conference (on 12/28/2017) when the Chief of Staff was at that table, Marcos Penawith the Minister of Economy, Nicolas Dujovnethe President of the BCRA, Federico “I am always” Sturzenegger and the “Messi of Finance”, Luis Caputo, as Minister of Finance, not extending the deadline but giving the liquidation of exports the voluntary character. This new character lasted until 08/31/2019 after having had to resort in May and August 2018 to 2 loans from the IMF, both signed by Luis Caputo for US$ 35 and 57.8 MM, respectively.
At that moment the current President expressed “Caputo smoked US$15 million in a week, he’s useless” but it would seem that it was not so but that the anger would come from the side that would not have been able to participate in the “smoking.”
This Thursday we find the news of Communication A 8137 of the BCRA that to the 150 days of mandatory export settlement extends up to 20 subsequent business days to enter them. The only thing that did not begin to be done was the dollar withdrawal limit since DNU 70/2023 allows it without limits, now it only begins to stretch the deadlines and giving them the voluntary nature and shortly they would begin to continue stretching the deadlines .
We already know the consequences of these decisions because in the period 1/15/2016 to 08/31/2019 they stopped enter the BCRA the sum of US$30,000 million since purchases of raw materials/inputs and finished products were paid from international reserves and dollars from exports did not enter. Leading to a lack of dollars that generated that on 08/15/2019 after losing the presidential PASO by more than 15 points, Mauricio Macri established the exchange rate “trap” that lasts until today and that with the level of external debt (which went from US$100 to 280MM in the same period) concomitantly with the re-profiling – euphemism for gods– of the internal debt in pesos from 8/15/2019 to 02/28/2020 established by Hernán Lacunza as Minister of Economy.
All this allowed in that same period a legalized exit of dollars from reserves with even over-invoicing of imports to foreign accounts of local firms that later ended up in accounts of natural persons, many of which were prosecuted by the DGA in charge of William Michel in the Federal Courts during the period 06/2022 to 12/2023.
Today our economic-financial situation is much weaker than at that time, since in just 1 year the external debt increased close to US$ 90,000 million. finding ourselves in a process of hyperrecession and/or depression with a drop in economic activity and non-coherent inflation rates With this table since it should be of the order of -0.5/-1% monthly and not +3 or + 4%, we have negative net international reserves of US$ -6/-7 billion and without possibilities of access to markets of voluntary debts (bonds) as a consequence of the over-indebtedness of 2016-2017, only knowing that some fresh funds may arrive – just as we said 3 months ago – at the end of March/2025 after the spring meeting of the IMF in the order of up to US$ 7,000 million.
Therefore, it is always very strange that ““When faced with the same problems with the same actors and the same solutions, the results will be different.” just as Albert Einstein and/or Tomás Bulat always expressed it.
Source: Ambito
