Electromobility
Forecast: Only eleven million electric cars in Germany by 2030
The traffic light coalition wanted to make Germany the leading international market for electric cars – a difficult goal anyway given China’s lead. The citizens have not yet followed suit.
According to projections by management consultancy Deloitte, the number of electric cars in Germany will grow far more slowly in the coming years than the broken traffic light coalition had hoped. In 2030, only 11.2 million fully electric battery cars could be on the road instead of the 15 million fully electric battery cars targeted in the coalition agreement. According to a survey, widespread skepticism among the population also contributes to this.
Desired goal in the coalition agreement
The SPD, Greens and FDP had set the goal of at least 15 million electric cars in the coalition agreement, and the Federal Republic should become the lead market for electromobility. Cars with hybrid engines were not included.
The lead international market for electric cars is China anyway. At the end of December 2023, the federal government abruptly canceled the subsidy for electric cars due to budget problems, and as a result, sales figures fell sharply. “In order to promote the acceptance of electromobility, reliable framework conditions are essential because companies need planning security,” said Harald Proff, head of the automobile division at Deloitte.
So far, only just under 1.6 million fully electric cars have been registered
The estimate of a good 11 million battery-powered cars in 2030 is based on a calculation model that incorporates a number of factors that are important for the purchase decision. This includes the development of electricity and gasoline prices as well as the prices of vehicle insurance and purchase premiums. According to figures from the Federal Motor Vehicle Authority, almost 1.6 million battery-powered cars were registered in Germany on October 1st.
According to a Deloitte survey, the population is still divided when it comes to electric cars: Forty percent of 1,000 respondents think that the EU’s planned ban on the sale of new combustion cars from 2035 makes sense, but 36 percent reject this as bad or even very bad decision. The remaining 24 percent are therefore neutral.
Consultants see electric cars making unstoppable progress internationally
The Deloitte consultants still assume that electric cars will become established internationally. “Companies are well advised to invest more in battery research in order to reduce vehicle prices and strengthen the acceptance of e-mobility,” said Proff, referring to the auto industry.
dpa
Source: Stern
