Analysts give their opinion on the future of the economy as the year closes with profound changes promoted by Javier Milei. The fiscal balance achieved by the Government, the abrupt drop in the inflation rate and the ordering of the State are the main flags of the ruling party in its first year in office. Negotiations with International Monetary Fund (IMF)To achieve new disbursements that allow the current exchange controls to be released, they are expected to bear fruit in the first part of 2025.
“We are working on different alternatives to get out of the trap: “We are talking about a program with the IMF, but also with a group of banks”Milei said in a recent interview.
“The stabilization plan continues to be consolidated, operators begin to anticipate the next milestonessuch as an agreement with the IMF that includes fresh funds, an exit from the stocks and a return to financing in international markets, all of which could continue to contribute to the improving stock and bond valuations“said economist Gustavo Ber.
“The use of laundering dollars (from current capital) helps to improve the level of activity and is also on the doorstep of the country being able to obtain international financing (via the IMF). And this following Trump’s victory ( in the US elections)”, estimated Piedad Ortiz, economist at Wise Capital. “The recovery of economic activity and the good financial environment, In a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, they realize that the worst of the crisis has already passed“said a report from BBVA bank.
Good outlook in the markets for 2025
“To the good financial news left by the last quarter of 2024 is added the renewal of confidence in the national Government on the part of society, leaving a good outlook for 2025 and giving room to address the challenges of the sustainability of the fiscal balance and exchange rate flexibility,” he noted.
“We consider it likely that the Treasury will continue oroffering prizes in tenders, especially in fixed rate bonds with longer duration, as a strategy to alleviate the concentration of maturities and continue improving its debt profile,” said Delphos Investment.
“Therefore, although we believe that long rates in pesos are currently at attractive levels, we consider it possible that in the future Rates above the curve will be offered in the coming months“he added.
“The Domestic stocks had an excellent run this year which is already culminating, sustained in the change in expectations generated, beyond the presidential replacement, in the conviction in the implementation of the elimination of the fiscal deficit and therefore in its influence on the reduction in inflation,” said Capital Markets Argentina.
“In this crisis and paradigm shift that we are going through, we have to start thinking about the development strategy in a more dialogue-based way, linked to growth and development,” said Gala Díaz Langou, executive director of CIPPEC, in a presentation by the Observatory of the Argentine Social Debt of the Argentine Catholic University (ODSA-UCA).
“There are three key elements to take into account to design a development model: education, social inclusion, and a more intelligent and efficient State,” he said.
Source: Ambito
