According to a Bloomberg survey, Elon Musk’s company could deliver about 510,400 vehicles in the last three months of the year. That would mark a new quarterly record for Tesla, but the company would need to sell about 4,600 more cars to meet its forecast of slight growth in 2024.
It is worth remembering that the leader in the production of electric vehicles, together with its Chinese peer BYD, added more than US$733,000 million in market capitalization since the day of the North American elections until mid-December, when its valuation reached a maximum of US$1.54 trillion.
Concern about the possible repeal of subsidies for electric cars
However, Trump’s proposals are far from envisioning a successful future. for Tesla. While a federal framework for autonomous vehicle deployment is cause for optimism, it’s not clear the company’s technology is ready. The Trump advisors are also recommending that he repeal the subsidies to electric vehicles and roll back regulations on fuel economy and tailpipe pollution, which generate significant revenue for Tesla.
“This number is totally uncertain,” Gene Munster, managing partner at growth investment firm Deepwater Asset Management, said of Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries. Munster is wary of Musk distancing himself from politically left-wing consumers and leaning toward Trump supporters, who haven’t been buying electric vehicles. That said, Prospect of tax credits disappearing soon could “really squeeze” sales of Tesla, he asserted.
Slowdown in the electric car market
Tesla’s performance in 2024 took place in a general framework of slowdown in the global electric car market. Even as BYD continued its climb up the sales charts, the company increasingly leaned on the strength of its plug-in hybrid lineup. In parallel, Volkswagen AG, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Volvo Car AB were some of the traditional car manufacturers that reduced their electric vehicle targets for the coming years to sometime in 2024.
In the USA, the Ford Motor Co.’s plug-in vehicle business faces $5 billion in annual losses. And in Japan, a possible partnership between Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. to work together on developing software, batteries and other EV components has given way to consideration of a full combination under a joint holding company.
Even against this backdrop, Musk has offered an optimistic vision for 2025. When Tesla last reported its quarterly results in October, the CEO said his best estimate was that the company could grow its sales by 20% to 30% next year.
That outlook is based, in part, on Tesla launching more affordable models in the first half of next year, which the company has not yet identified. The firm has already taken a leap in its affordability campaign by closing the year with a avalanche of offersranging from low-rate financing to years of free charging and cheaper leases.
Source: Ambito
