Argentine exports expanded more than 18% in 2024, but the question is whether growth can be sustained

Argentine exports expanded more than 18% in 2024, but the question is whether growth can be sustained

He value of exports of goods of Latin America and the Caribbean expanded around 4.1% in 2024, after the 1.6% decrease in 2023, according to the latest edition of the report Estimates of trade trends in Latin America and the Caribbean from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). In that growth, Argentina played a key role: after 2023 with sales values ​​falling by 24.5%, last year they rebounded by 18.1% and placed third in the regional ranking..

“The balance of risks for regional trade remains balanced and projections point to limited growth, in a framework of high uncertainty about the world economy,” he explained. Paolo Giordanoprincipal economist of the Productivity, Trade and Innovation Sector of the IDB and coordinator of the study.

Exports: projections

The expansion of shipments from the region was explained by the boost in exported volumes, while prices remained stagnantexplains the report.

This growth would not be sustained, since although prospects improved notably throughout the year and the region’s exports surpassed the contraction phase, there are no signs of long-term trade expansion in the region.

“For foreign trade to continue to contribute significantly to economic growth, the region must focus on reforms and investments that increase productivity, facilitating trade and investments,” Giordano recommended.

Export Exports Import Trade Balance Suravit

Foreign sales evolved positively in 2024.

Mariano Fuchila

The evolution of external sales performance varied at the subregional level. The recovery of South American exports, driven by the increase in volumes shippedexplained most of the increase.

A rebound was also observed in the Caribbean. Although in Central America Exports stagnated and Mexicofor their part, showed a slight acceleration in the pace of expansion, due to better prices.

Exports: ranking of countries with the greatest expansion

  1. Guyana: 59.6%
  2. Venezuela: 18.7%
  3. Argentina: 18.1%
  4. Peru: 15.8%
  5. Uruguay: 14.6%
  6. Costa Rica: 9.3%
  7. Ecuador: 8.6%
  8. Dominican Republic: 7.8%
  9. Chile: 4.7%
  10. Mexico: 4%
  11. Guatemala: 1.9%
  12. Belize: 1.2%
  13. Nicaragua: 0.8%

Exports: ranking of countries with the greatest decline

  1. Panama: –73.3%
  2. Suriname: –40.5%
  3. Bolivia: –19.1%
  4. Bahamas: –15.1%
  5. Trinidad and Tobago: –13.1%
  6. Jamaica: –9.3%
  7. Paraguay: –6.5%
  8. Honduras: –3.1%
  9. Barbados: –0.8%
  10. El Salvador: –0.8%
  11. Brazil: –0.8%
  12. Colombia: –0.5%

Export prices

In 2024, the prices of the main commodities exported by Latin America and the Caribbean showed a solid downward trend. The exceptions were the coffee, with an average expansion of 57.7% compared to the same period in 2023, and the copper, that grew a 9.4%. Meanwhile, the interannual variation rates were negative for the soybeans (-22.1%), sugar (-13.7%), iron (-9.2%) and oil (-2.7%).

The report anticipates that the downward trend will continue in the coming quarters, in a context of high volatility.

Performance by subregions

It is estimated that South American exports increased 4% in 2024, after having fallen 4.4% in 2023. The boost came from the acceleration in the growth of exported volumes, which went from 3.6% in 2023 to 6. 9% in 2024, in a context of continued price contraction.

For its part, it is estimated that Mesoamerican exports increased 3.6% in 2024, accelerating the pace of expansion compared to the previous year. The result is almost exclusively due to the performance of Mexico, where external sales grew 4.0%. On the contrary, Central American exports stagnated in 2024 (0.1%).

Finally, Caribbean shipments recovered significantly, with an increase of 18.3% in 2024, after a drop of 14.9% in 2023.

The region’s total imports also reversed the trend, and showed a slight expansion of 3.2%, compared to the sharp fall of the previous year (-6.8%).

Source: Ambito

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