Heat transition: Heat pump manufacturers are counting on a big increase in sales in 2025

Heat transition: Heat pump manufacturers are counting on a big increase in sales in 2025

Heat transition
Heat pump manufacturers are counting on a big increase in sales in 2025






How can heating become climate neutral? Heat pumps powered by green electricity are considered by many to be the method of choice. The device manufacturers prepared for this – and were initially disappointed.

After a slump in sales last year, heat pump manufacturers are expecting significantly more devices to be sold again in 2025. The Federal Heat Pump Association (BWP) is particularly optimistic about the new figures for heating subsidies, which were launched in February 2024.

Last year there were already more than 151,000 funding commitments under the “Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings” (BEG) program, of which a good 37,000 were in December alone. “The BEG funding is finally starting to take effect,” said BWP managing director Martin Sabel in Berlin. Demand and interest in funding increased. It is therefore expected that the market will recover as early as 2025 if the funding continues and is further announced.

Association believes sales increase by 33 percent is possible

Under the current conditions, the association considers an increase in sales figures of 33 percent to around 257,000 devices to be possible this year. If there were additional impulses such as relief in electricity prices, even stronger growth would be possible, emphasized the BWP.

In the coming years, the association does not rule out over 500,000 devices per year. In 2030, a total of more than five million installed devices will still be possible in Germany. Industry, trade, housing and other sectors promised the corresponding capacities at four heat pump summits, it said. According to BWP, around 1.7 million heat pumps are currently used in Germany.

Actually, 500,000 heat pumps should be installed every year

The federal government and associations had planned to install half a million heat pumps every year from 2024 onwards in 2022. It is now clear: Last year there were only 193,000 – 46 percent less than in the record year 2023. The industry association sees a lack of awareness of heating subsidies and uncertainties surrounding municipal heating planning as the main reasons for the decline.

For the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH), the Building Energy Act (GEG), often referred to as the Heating Act, also plays an important role, the current version of which has been in force since the beginning of 2024. It stipulates that every newly installed heating system must be powered by 65 percent renewable energy. However, the regulations initially only apply to new buildings in a new development area.

Heating engineer: GEG rules are often perceived as coercive

“In addition to the lengthy and public debate and the resulting uncertainty among consumers, the complex regulations of the law are perceived by many consumers as coercive,” explained BDH Managing Director Markus Staudt, according to a statement. “Furthermore, the municipal heat planning linked to the GEG leads to people postponing heating modernization and waiting for possible offers from their municipality.” The BDH does not want to abolish the law, but is calling for it to be made more understandable.

The heat pump industry also wants to maintain the heating law. It sent a “signal of departure” for renewable energies. “The discussion about withdrawing the regulations is primarily causing irritation among industry, trade and building owners,” said Sabel. “We are abolishing the traffic light heating law,” says the CDU in its election manifesto.

The industry criticizes that the discussion is leading to unnecessary and harmful restraint on the heating market. The solutions are already on the market, and industry and trade have long since adapted to the requirements.

Heat pump association: Recognize the heat transition as an opportunity

With a view to the federal election, the association called on politicians to “recognize the heat transition as an opportunity”. The Building Energy Act, the Heat Planning Act and the funding programs have laid the foundations for a climate-neutral building stock, explained BWP Deputy Chairman Klaus Ackermann.

“These structures should be maintained until the European emissions trading for heat and transport is introduced as planned in 2027,” said Ackermann. The use of the income from this should be clarified at an early stage and made socially fair. Among other things, this should further reduce the burden of taxes on electricity prices.

The association expects electricity prices to be reduced by the new federal government. This is overdue – also as an incentive for electrification. “Building owners must be able to clearly see that expanding cheap renewable electricity generation will actually lead to falling consumer prices,” said Sabel. Above all, a solution to network charges is necessary and the electricity tax must be reduced to the minimum permitted under European law.

dpa

Source: Stern

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