In full debate about the future of the dollar and the possible flexibility of thes exchange restrictionsseveral scenarios are raised that depend largely on negotiation with international organizations to obtain new financial resources.
The Government made it clear that, if an agreement is reached that involves a significant disbursement, the possibility of lifting the limitations during this year would be evaluated, as long as certain advances that reinforce external reserves are fulfilled. Otherwise, The control of control would be postponedpointing at the beginning of next year.
In the short term, the authorities argue that, Given the current situation and the risks inherent to an abrupt jump in the value of the currencythe prudent is to maintain the current scheme. A system that allows you to contain volatility by means of a moderate monthly devaluation, lower than the inflation rate, which seeks to preserve macroeconomic balance and avoid abrupt destabilizations in the markets.
What does the city say about the dollar
Within the discussions in the City, they emphasize that, even with injections of funds from international organizations, Simple obtaining resources does not guarantee the elimination of restrictions. The key, according to various approaches, lies in strengthening the country’s net reserves.
And it happens that this is only possible if a surplus is achieved in the balance of payments, either through a solid performance in the current account or by capturing capital that exceeds the existing deficit. The sustainability of reserves is, therefore, an indispensable requirement to move towards greater liberalization of the exchange market.
Projections indicate that, In a scenario of inflationary moderation and prudent monetary policies, The exchange rate could experience moderate annual growth, maintaining a controlled devaluation trend in the official market. However, it is noted that the panorama could become more uncertain if significant variations occur in the expectations of economic actors, especially in a context marked by political and electoral factors.
Likewise, it is contemplated that, in the event that the restrictions are accelerated accelerated by a financing agreement, the transition to a flexible exchange rate regime could generate temporary tensions in the markets. ANDSto would imply the need to clearly define the new exchange schemesince the unification of the different markets could cause adjustments in the exchange gaps and require an adaptation period for both operators and authorities.
On the other hand, if the international situation and negotiations do not advance as expected, the current regime is likely to be maintained, given its stabilizer function and its ability to mitigate inflationary pressures. In this sense, the prudent management of liquidity and timely intervention of the Central Bank will be fundamental to preserve order in financial markets, especially in periods of greater tension, such as the nearby electoral dates.
In short, the future of the dollar and the country’s exchange strategy are intrinsically linked to the ability to generate surpluses in the balance of payments and international agreements that allow reinforcing external reserves. Meanwhile, a conservative approach that seeks to avoid excessive volatilities and guarantee macroeconomic stability in a global and local environment full of uncertainties is optled.
Source: Ambito
