The production of soybeans and corn faces a strong setback due to the extreme climatic conditions that predominated in the 2024/25 campaign, which still has an intense section to travel. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the soy harvest It is estimated at 47.5 million tons (MT), which represents a 5 MT drop compared to the initial September forecasts. Meanwhile, corn production It was adjusted to 46 MT, marking a reduction of 6 mt with respect to the campaign start projections and 2 Mt less compared to the January estimate.
This productive cut responds to a combination of extreme climatic factors: three consecutive heat waves with temperatures that exceeded 40 ° C in the central and northern strip of the country, added to a long drought that severely affected crops. In some regions, such as Chaco, nocturnal temperatures above 32 ° C and relative humidity levels of just 20%, conditions that aggravate water stress in crops were recorded.
Estthat water: impact on soybeans and corn
The high temperatures and lack of rainfall caused abortions of flowers and chauchas, loss of leaves and plants in the first planting soybeans, which impacts directly on the expected performance.
As for the second soybean the heat stroke generated even more severe losses, with reductions between 30% and 70% in potential yields. It is estimated that at least 780,000 hectares could be left out of harvest, representing a considerable decrease for total production.
If regular rains have been registered, the soy harvest could have reached 52-53 Mt. However, given the current climatic reality, the BCR projects a national average yield of 27.6 quintals per hectare (qq/ha), which leaves A final production of 47.5 mt, that is, 2.5 Mt less than the previous campaign (50 mt).
Expected yields in the main producing provinces reflect the strong impact of the water deficit: In Buenos Aires, 27.3 qq/ha (vs. 31.4 qq/ha in 2023), in Córdoba about 30.0 QQ/Ha (vs. 31.3 qq/ha in 2023) and finally finally In Santa Fe, 30.9 QQ/HA (vs. 39.1 qq/ha in 2023) would be lifted.
Corn has also been strongly affected by the lack of water. Early corn, sown in October, faced extreme conditions during flowering, which impacted the size and development of the cobs. On the other hand, late corn crosses a critical stage, with the ongoing flowering and an urgent need for rains in the next 10 days to avoid more losses.
For cereal, the projected national average yield is 70.5 QQ/ha, with decline adjustments in the main producing provinces: Buenos Aires would have a fall of 3.8 QQ/Ha, Córdoba of 4.8% U la Fall in Santa Fe would be 2.8 qq/ha.
ProneClimate Sticus and Perspectives for Crops
After ten days of extreme heat, the latest rains provided partial relief in the agricultural nucleus region. According to the National Meteorological Service (SMN), some areas recorded precipitations greater than normal values for this time of year, which helped stop the deterioration of crops.
However, these rains were not enough to completely reverse the accumulated water deficit. To avoid new cuts in production projections, it will be essential that in the next 10 days the rains reach at least 40 mm per week in the provinces of Córdoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, Santiago del Estero and Chaco.
The climate scenario remains uncertain, with forecasts that indicate persistence of dry conditions in several productive areas. This maintains pressure on crops and generates concern in the agricultural sector, which depends on new rainfall to sustain production expectations.
Pmillionaire for Argentine agriculture
The productive impact of drought and extreme heat translates into significant economic losses. According to export prices -based estimates, the drop in soy .
The next weeks will be decisive for the future of the thick harvest. Given this scenario, producers must closely follow meteorological forecasts and make numbers, because despite the temporal reduction of retentions, profitability schemes remain very tight even in the areas in which the rains were abundant.
Source: Ambito
